New Zealand v Italy Prediction, Preview & Odds – Rugby World Cup

We have a New Zealand v Italy prediction for you along with all the betting odds ahead of a crucial Pool A clash in the 2023 Rugby World Cup.

New Zealand v Italy Match Info

When? 8.00 pm, Friday, September 29^th

Where? Parc Olympique Lyonnais, Décines-Charpieu, Lyon

TV Channel? ITV 1/ Virgin Media One

New Zealand v Italy Betting Odds

New Zealand are the overwhelming 1/100 favourites in the match betting. Italy are 25/1 to cause a shock while the draw is 80/1.

Handicap Betting

New Zealand: -29 @ Evens

Italy: +29 @ Evens

Handicap Draw: -29 @ 18/1

New Zealand v Italy Preview

New Zealand’s Form

In the opening fixture of the tournament New Zealand lost their first-ever pool stage match at a Rugby World Cup. That loss came to tournament hosts 27-13 against tournament hosts France.

The All Blacks followed that up with a rampant 71-3 win over Namibia the following weekend to get their campaign back on track. After sitting out last weekend New Zealand will want to be at their sharpest in this one as anything but a victory over Italy, who have won two from two, could put their qualification hopes in serious jeopardy.

World Number 4 New Zealand are making their tenth appearance at a Rugby World Cup. The country is looking looking to add to their competition successes in 1987, 2011 and 2015. In 2019, they came in third following a semi-final elimination from England before they won the Bronze final against Wales 40-17.

Head Coach Ian Foster has been in charge since 2010 and has come under pressure for his job throughout due to his 69%-win rate coming into the competition. Remarkably not since Laurie Mains’s 1992-1995 record of 67.6% has there been a worse win percentage for an All Blacks Head Coach. Despite this poor record, Foster was given this tournament for one last hurrah before being replaced by Scott Robertson after the World Cup.

New Zealand started their Rugby World Cup warm-up with great success winning the Rugby Championship back in July following a 41-12 victory over Argentina, a 35-20 win over South Africa and a convincing 38-7 win against Australia.

In their final warm-up games they were less than impressive. The All Blacks only narrowly beat Australia 23-20 before being dominated by South Africa in a 7-35 defeat in Twickenham.

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Italy’s Form

The fixture list was kind to Italy at the start of this Rugby World Cup. In their opening game they faced Namibia who they beat 52-8. They then followed that up with a 38-17 victory against Uruguay in the next round.

This means Italy have two remaining pool games against the top two nations in Pool A, New Zealand and France. If the Italians can secure a result in one of these two games they would secure a historic quarter-final appearance.

Kieran Crowley has been Head Coach of Italy since leaving Benetton Treviso in 2021 and he has already helped them to victories against two Tier 1 Nations. The first a 21-22 victory against Wales in the 2022 Six Nations, the second being a 28-27 win over Australia during the November Series.

The trends are positive for Italy, and in the Six Nations this year, they drove France close at home, only losing 24-29. They also came within 17 points of their opponents in the remaining games which indicates they can be competitive with the top rugby nations now.

In the run-up to the Rugby World Cup Italy lost their opening two warm-up games 25-13 against Scotland and 33-17 against Ireland. However, that was followed by two wins 57-7 against Romania and 42-21 against Japan.

New Zealand v Italy Lineups

New Zealand Starting Lineup

1. Ofa Tu’ungafasi
2. Codie Taylor
3. Nepo Laulala
4. Brodie Retallick
5. Scott Barrett
6. Shannon Frizell
7. Dalton Papali’i
8. Ardie Savea (C)
9. Aaron Smith
10. Richie Mo’unga
11. Mark Tele’a
12. Jordie Barrett
13. Rieko Ioane
14. Will Jordan
15. Beauden Barrett

Italy Starting Lineup

1. Danilo Fischetti
2. Ciacomo Nicotera
3. Marco Riccioni
4. Dino Lamb
5. Federico Ruzza
6. Sebastian Negri
7. Michele Lamaro (C)
8. Lorenzo Cannone
9. Stephen Varney
10. Paolo Garbisi
11. Montanna Ioane
12. Luca Morisi
13. Juan Ignacio Brex
14. Ange Capuozzo
15. Tommaso Allan

Key Players To Watch

Mark Tele’a (New Zealand)

Tele’a entered this tournament as one of the favourites to be the Top Tryscorer at the 2023 Rugby World Cup. Those odds shortened following his brace of tries in their 27-13 defeat to France during the opening night of the competition. Telea can be currently backed at 12/1 which makes him the third favourite in that market.

The wing plays at club level for The Blues Rugby and will remain with club and country until at least 2025. The 26-year-old’s signing came to the delight of Blues and All-Black fans who were keen to keep him in the country.

Tele’a’s form in 2023 has been excellent, equalling Doug Howlett’s Blues record for tries in a season (12) while leading the competition in clean breaks (24) and defenders beaten (101).

With his talents described as “seriously crazy,” he will be a man to watch out for as this tournament progresses.

The Stade de France is silenced as Mark Telea goes over for the first try of the 2023 Rugby World Cup!

📱 Updates 👉 Live: RWC Opener: France v New Zealand updates (https://t.co/UfZlrawZG3)

📺 Watch live 👉 https://t.co/VSwA7or0dn#RWC2023 #FRAvNZL #RTERugby pic.twitter.com/wkvegplWbg

— RTÉ Rugby (@RTErugby) September 8, 2023

Tommaso Allan

The Italian Fly-Half has been in excellent form from the kicking tee in this tournament. Allan opened his account hitting 7/7 conversions and 1/1 penalties in their opening game against Namibia.

In Italy’s second Pool A Game he hit 5/5 conversions against Uruguay. If Italy are to stand any chance against New Zealand they will need a huge performance from Allan.

Great cover defence from Tommaso Allan and Michele Lamaro!#RWC2023 | #ITAvURU | @Federugby pic.twitter.com/34fXIMadKh

— Rugby World Cup (@rugbyworldcup) September 20, 2023

New Zealand v Italy Rugby Previous Results

The All Blacks first faced Italy in the opening game of the 1987 Rugby World Cup with New Zealand winning 70-6. The two teams have since played a total of fifteen test games with New Zealand winning all of them, the average winning margin is 51 points.

New Zealand’s biggest margin of victory occurred at the 1999 Rugby World Cup where they won 101-3 in a pool stage match. Italy came closest to New Zealand during the 2009 end-of-year internationals where they only lost 6-20.

Here’s how the last two games between these teams have gone:

2021: End-of-year Internationals – Italy 9-47 New Zealand
2018: End-of-year Internationals – Italy 3-66 New Zealand

New Zealand v Italy Prediction & Best Bet

Prediction: New Zealand 52-10 Italy

New Zealand are coming into this fixture under a bit of pressure, despite following the French defeat with a 71-3 win against Namibia. Due to having last weekend off, they’re coming into this against an Italian side who are currently ahead of them in the Pool following their two bonus point victories.

That being said, despite the Italian side visibly and statistically improving, New Zealand remain on an entirely different level to them. It would take a considerable collapse for New Zealand to be troubled here but never say never.

Best Bet: New Zealand To Win Both Halves By 15 Points Or More @ 5/2

Click Below For All Our New Zealand v Italy Odds

*Prices subject to fluctuation

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