Sean Dyche Everton BSI

Next Premier League Manager to leave their Post Odds

In this post, we look at the most likely Premier League managers to leave their post odds and prediction as the season hots up.

The life of a Premier League manager can be tenuous at the best of times. Managers are under constant pressure to perform and deliver results for their perspective clubs and if you don’t your position is likely to become untenable quickly.

This is exactly what we saw during the 23/24 season, 14 coaches lost their job with Chelsea sacking three Tuchel, Potter, and Saltor. This broke the previous record of 10 which occurred in 08/09, 13/14, 17/18, and 21/22.

That’s’ the nature of modern football, no job is safe and you’re only as good as your last decent result. However there has been a since stability in recent months with now 12/20 now in their role for at least a year From the beginning of the league season in August there had been no sackings remarkably until December with Paul Heckingbottom being removed from his role at Sheffield United, fourteen days later we had the second casualty with Steve Cooper being removed from his role at Bournemouth.

While clubs have largely kept their hands away from the proverbial trigger so far this season, as we gear up for the business end of the season, I’d expect patience to run out in boardrooms across the league..

So who are the most likely candidates to leave their post next?

Roy Hodgson – 5/4

Ironically enough, favourite to be the next Manager to leave his post is Roy Hodgson a man who was only appointed on the 21st of March  following the sacking of his initial successor Patrick Vieira.

Hodgson guided his team to a 2-1 success over Leicester City in his first game back on the 1st of April. This victory ended their thirteen game winless run and their first win of 2023. He managed to keep the club up and well away  from relegation, winning five and drawing three of his ten matches back in charge to ensure they finished in eleventh place which eventually earned himself a one year deal to stay on for this season.

However, such is the fickle nature of football, a record of two defeats, two draws and a sole victory in their last five league games has seen the pressure piled on Roy with Palace fourteenth on the table and only five-points clear of the relegation zone and being knocked out of the FA Cup 1-0 by Everton.

It should be noted that, Hodgson hands have been very much tied in relation to financial backing for signings both last summer and now in January.

Palace play Arsenal, Sheffield United, Brighton, Chelsea and Everton in their next five games and Hodgson may have to pull a few rabbits out if he is going to survive this run of games.

Best Bet

Erik ten Hag 7/2

ten Hag had a successful first-season at the club winning the EFL Cup and returning the side to the top four. However, football is a volatile game and with a league record of ten wins, nine defeats and two draws from their opening twenty-one matches putting them seventh in the league and ten Hag’s job very much under the microscope of public scrutiny.

Poor luck with suspensions, off-field issues and injuries have not helped the Dutchman, but those excuses will only wash for so long despite him retaining the public backing of Chief Executive Richard Arnold. The arrival of Jim Radcliffe as co 25% owner of the club and head of Sporting Operations throws further questions about his long-term future at the club having not been the man who brought ten Hag in originally. 

Man United in their last five games in all competitions have two wins, two losses and one draw which is far from stellar form. The club have a relatively easy run coming up though with Newport, Wolves, West Ham, Aston Villa and Luton Town. That could go one way or another win most of those and he will be very safe but another poor run could make it even more precarious.

We have previewed potential replacements and market leaders to replace ten Hag here

Safe (for now)

Eddie Howe– 9/2      

Newcastle manager Eddie Howe looks like the third most likely manager to leave their post having had a record of four defeats and just a sole victory in his last five league games in the dugout for the club. A far cry from the positivity of last season the club are currently tenth in the league with nine wins from their twenty-one league games.

Howe was appointed as Newcastle manager on the 8thof November after sacking Steve Bruce.  For all intents and purposes has done a brilliant job guiding them from relegation battles to Champions League Football.

Newcastle owners have been very shrewd in their business so far and not “trigger happy”.  However, with increased success means increased expectation levels.

Howe has Fulham, Aston Villa, Luton Town, Nottingham Forest and Bournemouth in their next five games and I expect the tide to turn positive at least for now.

One To. Watch.

Vincent Kompany – 13/2

Vincent Kompany looks like the fourth most likely manager to leave their post having earned just twelve-points from their opening twenty-one league games. That record has them currently nineteenth in the table and five-points off safety from the relegation zone.

Kompany was appointed as Bournemouth manager on the 14th of June 2022. He did a brilliant job last season as the club dominated the Championship with a 101-point total coming ten clear of Sheffield United. However, the transition to the Premier League has not proved easy so far.

Their next five league games are Luton Town, Man City, Fulham, Liverpool and Arsenal an extremely tough run which will pile the pressure.

At 13/2 Kompany represents a good value bet.

My One to Watch…

Mauricio Pochettino – 16/1

In a reasonable, rational world, Pochettino would not be in consideration. I mean, he has been in the job “officially” for a little under two months.

However, when I first proposed this he was 28/1 so his odds have shortened considerably since.

After paying over 385 million this summer along with considerable investment last season, I suggested the squad would take time to gel and it has. With Chelsea currently only in ninth position in the league.  Chelsea remain a chaotic club though and  four managers took charge of them last season which shows how volatile the club can be.

With four league victories in their last five Chelsea, seems to have turned the corner under Poch. That being said the club are never too far away from making mad moves and with Mourinho now available, if they lost the majority of their next five against Middlesbrough, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Wolves and Crystal Palace.

The odds could shorten even further.

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*Prices Subject To Fluctuation

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