Pete’s Picks – Saturday’s Live GAA Analysis & Tips
The Senior Football and Hurling Championship qualifiers are in full swing again this weekend with some cracking match-ups set to run. Here’s a run-down of the best of the action with some juicy bets, too.
Cavan v Roscommon, Football, RTÉ, 5pm
BoyleSports’ odds-compilers are absolutely correct to keep the draw on-side as Cavan host Roscommon in the All-Ireland SFC qualifiers at Breffni Park this evening.
BoyleSports have the possibility of a stalemate at 13/2 and given there is truly very little between these teams in terms of overall quality that price is understandable.
Rumours of discontent in the Roscommon camp may be a slight concern to supporters of John Evans’ outfit who are marginal outsiders at 6-5, the best available odds on the Rossies across the bookmaking industry.
Yet, the westerners have more natural talent within their ranks than the northerners.
Still, Monaghan, a side rated higher in these quarters than they are given credit for, found it difficult to shake off Cavan and a similar performance on this occasion might yield a positive result for them.
However, this game really should go the distance and because of that, taking the draw on value grounds is advised.
Additionally, contests like these can often be level at half-time as well and throwing a few cents on the draw/draw double-result at a whopping 40/1 could give punters a run for their coppers.
Since the spring of last year, these sides have already met four times and familiarity may lead to a cagey encounter.
Cavan are evens to produce a match-winning tally but when the bookmakers are finding it tricky to separate them you know you have a close tie up-coming.
Draw @ 13/2
Draw @ 40/1
Wexford v Cork, Hurling, Sky Sports 1, 7pm
As a Corkman, I was absolutely stunned to see the Rebels posted as a 4/11 shot to win in Wexford Park tonight.
Discussing this match in Irish Examiner towers this week with a number of other GAA journalists and the consensus was this: ‘Okay, there are no bookmakers moving around on push-bikes, but Cork at 4/11? Come off the stage!’
Where are the odds-compilers drafting that quote from, in all seriousness?
On what basis do Jimmy Barry-Murphy’s men deserve to be such a prohibitive price away to a side that has no option but to produce a huge performance in front of their own supporters?
Should Cork be favourites to win the match? Yes, after all, they are a regular top-tier side in the league and were provincial champions last year.
However, JBM’s boys are closer to a 4/6 chance and therefore represent absolutely no value whatsoever.
With all of that in mind, and the fact Wexford really aren’t as bad as Kilkenny made them appear to be in Nowlan Park, there is sufficient juice in the 11/4 to justify backing the hosts.
The Slaneysiders created a number of goalscoring opportunities in the first-half against the Cats but were wasteful at the worst times.
As a Cork saver, though, have a minor punt on Seamus Harnedy to be Sky Man of the Match.
Wexford @ 11/4
Wexford +5 @ 7/10
Seamus Harnedy Sky Man of the Match @ 8/1 (saver)