2023 Rugby World Cup Odds & Betting Favourites
We have 2023 Rugby World Cup odds for you as we breakdown the chances of the four remaining teams heading into the semi-finals.
2023 Rugby World Cup Odds
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2023 Rugby World Cup Betting Favourites
New Zealand are the new 2023 Rugby World Cup favourites after Quarter-Finals weekend. The All Blacks had been 7/2 co-third favourites alongside South Africa prior to the quarter-finals.
New Zealand became favourites thanks to their Quarter-Final victory over then tournament favourites and world number one Ireland.
Simply put, the All Blacks are the most successful team in Rugby Union history. They have won the Rugby World Cup on three occasions 1987, 2011 and 2015. Additionally, the Kiwis were the first country to win the competition three times as well as being the first team to retain the William Webb Ellis Cup.
New Zealand have played test matches against 19 nations, of which 12 have never won a game which is yet another testament to their dominance in the sport of rugby union.
More recently, New Zealand came into this Rugby World Cup with question marks surrounding them after a humiliating 35-7 loss to South Africa in their final pre-tournament warm-up game.
New Zealand’s Path To The Semi-Final
Ian Foster’s side didn’t exactly prove their doubters wrong in the Rugby World Cup opening game as they fell to a 13-27 loss to tournament hosts France.
This All Blacks side bounced back by getting themselves up and running in the second round courtesy of a facile 71-3 win over Pool A minnows Namibia.
New Zealand also made light work of Italy who some rugby pundits thought could keep the game competitive. The Italians were no match for a rampant All Blacks outfit who seem to have regained their swagger heading into the knockout rounds of this tournament.
The All Blacks kept their heavy scoring up against Uruguay in their final Pool A game. They won 73-0 against the Uruguayans to secure safe passage to the Quarter-Finals where they played Pool B winners Ireland.
As mentioned previously, Ireland were the tournament favourites going into this clash. The game turned out to be an instant classic with both sides going score for score over the course of the 80 minutes in the Stade de France.
Despite two yellow cards, the All Blacks held their nerve, as they so often do, to hold on for a 28-24 victory.
That Quarter-Final win over Ireland sets New Zealand up for a Semi-Final date with fellow Rugby Championship side Argentina. The All Blacks are massive favourites at 1/14 odds to advance to the 2023 Rugby World Cup Final. Those short odds suggest that the Quarter-Final against Ireland was a de facto Semi-Final for the Kiwis.
New Zealand’s 2023 Rugby World Cup Fixtures & Results
France 27-13 New Zealand | Pool A, Friday, September 8th.
New Zealand 71-3 Namibia | Pool A, Friday, September 15th.
New Zealand 96-17 Italy | Pool A, Friday, September 29th.
New Zealand 73-0 Uruguay | Pool A, Thursday, October 5th.
Ireland 24-28 New Zealand | Quarter-Final, Saturday, October 14th.
The 2019 Rugby World Cup winners South Africa are second favourites to win the 2023 Rugby World Cup at odds of 6/5. The South Africans had been tournament favourites prior to their Pool B loss to Ireland.
The Springboks are one of the two most successful sides in Rugby World Cup history having won the tournament three times since their debut in 1995.
Jacques Nienaber has been in charge of South Africa since 2020 and has a pretty impressive record since taking the role. Nienaber, along with the help of Rassie Erasmus has guided this team to a series win over the British and Irish Lions in 2021, a Wales series win in 2022 and two runner-up finishes in the Rugby Championship.
South Africa’s Path To The Semi-Final
South Africa kicked off their 2023 Rugby World Cup campaign with a commanding 18-3 victory over Scotland. The Springboks then went on to hammer Romania 76-0.
In the last Pool B game for the Springboks they took care of business against Tonga in a comfortable 31-point victory.
As mentioned earlier, South Africa did suffer defeat against Ireland which ultimately meant that they would finish second in the group as Ireland took care of business in their final pool game against Scotland.
That second place finish in Pool B set South Africa up with a date against tournament hosts France in the Quarter-Finals. Rugby fans and pundits were all expecting a great game between the two sides but what transpired surpassed even the highest of expectations.
South Africa and France treated us to arguably the greatest rugby union match of all time. It was the Springboks who eventually prevailed on a scoreline of 28-29 after 80+ minutes of breathtaking rugby.
South Africa will now face England in the Semi-Final in a repeat of the 2019 Rugby World Cup Final. A lot has changed in those four years however. This is not a vintage England side to say the least and we need look no further than South Africa’s -13-point handicap for proof of that.
The Springboks are 1/7 to qualify for the 2023 Rugby World Cup Final where they would likely play New Zealand. That is unless Argentina can pull off one of the great upsets in Rugby World Cup history.
South Africa’s 2023 Rugby World Cup Fixtures & Results
South Africa 18-3 Scotland | Pool B, Sunday, September 10th.
South Africa 76-0 Romania | Pool B, Sunday, September 17th.
South Africa 8-13 Ireland | Pool B, Saturday, September 23rd.
South Africa 49-18 Tonga | Pool B, Sunday, October 1st.
France 28-29 South Africa | Quarter-Final, Sunday, October 15th.
Next up in the betting to win the 2023 Rugby World Cup is England at odds of 14/1.
England are the only northern hemisphere side to win a Rugby World Cup thanks to their 2003 tournament victory and also the only northern hemisphere side remaining in this year’s Rugby World Cup.
Odds of 14/1 might initially look attractive on England winning this tournament but you have to remember that this squad is a far cry from the one that won the 2020 Six Nations and finished runner-up in the most recent Rugby World Cup.
In other words, England are going through a period of transition following the departure of longtime Head Coach Eddie Jones. Steve Borthwick, who took over from Jones, has been in charge since December with the 2023 Six Nations being his first test as manager.
England’s Path To The Semi-Final
You might ask; how are England in a World Cup Semi-Final if this is such a bad English side? The answer is that England got lucky by finding themselves on the easy side of the draw. They managed to avoid the big four of Ireland, South Africa, France and New Zealand until the Semi-Finals.
With that said, you can only beat who’s in front of you and England did just that.
England got their Rugby World Cup campaign off to a strong start by beating Pool B rivals Argentina 27-10 despite being down to 14 men for the majority of the game.
England followed that up with a comfortable 34-12 win over Japan and then a 71-0 victory against Chile.
After a week off the English faced off against Samoa in their final Pool D game. England struggled for large periods of the game and could have easily lost the game at the death in what would have been a(nother) shock loss. Borthwick’s side were assured top spot regardless of the result but the performance was definitely concerning heading into the knockout rounds of this World Cup.
Fiji were the opposition in the Quarter-Final. The Fijians beat England 22-30 at Twickenham this summer which gave them reason to fancy their chances going into the game despite a surprise loss of their own to Portugal in their previous outing.
The game wasn’t without its scares for Steve Borthwick’s side but they did enough to advance on a scoreline of 30-24. That victory means they will now play South Africa in the Semi-Final where they will bid to avenge their 2019 Rugby World Cup Final loss.
England are big underdogs heading into this semi-final at 7/2 odds to advance to the final.
England’s 2023 Rugby World Cup Fixtures & Results
England 27-10 Argentina | Pool D, Saturday, September 9th.
England 34-12 Japan | Pool D, Sunday, September 17th.
England 71-0 Chile | Pool D, Saturday, September 23rd.
England 18-17 Samoa | Pool D, Saturday, October 7th.
England 30-24 Fiji | Quarter-Final, Sunday, October 15th.
Finally, we have Argentina who are 33/1 to win the 2023 Rugby World Cup. That makes Argentina by far the least likely of the semi-final teams to win this year’s tournament with an implied probability of 2.9%.
Los Pumas are not strangers to this stage of the Rugby World Cup having previously made the Semi-Finals in 2007 and 2015. On both occasions they were well beaten, in 2007 South Africa beat them 37-13 and in 2015 Australia beat Argentina 29-15.
If the odds are anything to go by they are likely to fall victim to the same fate this time around as they are +18-point underdogs against New Zealand.
Argentina’s Path To The Semi-Final
Argentina’s first game of this World Cup came against England. Many pundits fancied Argentina to pull off the win against what was thought to be one of the worst England sides we’ve seen in the 21st century.
Despite England going down to 14-men early on thanks to a Tom Curry red card, Los Pumas still fell to a 17-point defeat. That performance and result left serious question marks around what we could expect from this Argentina side going forward in this tournament.
To the credit of Michael Cheika’s side, they did bounce back in their remaining Pool D games, although the quality of the other Pool D sides was questionable.
Argentina reeled off three straight wins against Samoa (19-10), Chile (59-5), and Japan (27-39) to book their spot in the Quarter-Finals.
The Argentines faced Wales in the Quarter-Final. It’s worth noting that this is one of the worst Wales sides in recent years as evidenced by their four losses in the Six Nations this spring.
Wales being below their usual standards gave Argentina a great opportunity to advance to the Semi-Finals. And advance they did with a late interception try sealing the deal in a famous 29-17 win for Los Pumas.
As previously mentioned, Argentina will now face fellow Rugby Championship side New Zealand in the Semi-Final. The last time these teams played was in the Rugby Championship in July where the All Blacks ran rampant as Argentina fell to a 41-12 home defeat.
Those who love an underdog story will be shouting “Vamos Los Pumas!” this Friday evening but all form points to an All Blacks victory.
Argentina’s 2023 Rugby World Cup Fixtures & Results
England 27-10 Argentina | Pool D, Saturday, September 9th.
Argentina 19-10 Samoa | Pool D, Friday, September 22nd.
Argentina 59-5 Chile | Pool D, Saturday, September 30th.
Japan 27-39 Argentina | Pool D, Sunday, October 8th.
Wales 17-29 Argentina | Quarter-Final, Saturday, October 14th.
For a full list of matches and upcoming events in the world of rugby union check out our 2023 Rugby Calendar post.
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