miss france

1000 Guineas 2014 – Newmarket Runners & Odds

It’s 21 years since Clive Brittain trained the winner of the 1,000 Guineas, but the Newmarket handler holds a leading chance of tasting victory in the race once more courtesy of his filly…

Rizeena, who lines-up on Sunday as the 3/1 favourite.

A winner of three of her first four races, including a Group 2 at Royal Ascot (5f, good to firm), Rizeena only managed to win one of her next four outings subsequently, although that success did come in a Group 1 at the Curragh when beating Aidan O’Brien’s Tapestry (8/1) just under 1l (7f, good to firm). It was a victory that saw her odds for the Guineas tumble, and they have remained solid despite her 1l defeat in a Group 1 over Sunday’s C&D on her final run last season.

However, it’s worth noting that the aforementioned defeat at Newmarket in September came at the hands of the high-class, Chrisellian, who a month later won at the Breeders’ Cup in America. On that basis alone, you could say Rizeena’s formlines are very strong.

Another filly with experience of Newmarket’s unique Rowley Mile is Andre Fabre’s Miss France (9/1), who won a Group 3 here over 7f last autumn (good to firm), before an unlucky defeat back in France last month (blocked path). It’s interesting Fabre has chosen this route for her, suggesting she may have come to hand early in the season.

Also on 9/1 is Saeed bin Suroor’s Ihtimal, who won a Group 2 at Doncaster last autumn (1m, good to soft), before a strong finishing third behind Chrisellian and Rizeena in the aforementioned Group 1 over C&D. This filly showed she had trained on by winning Listed and Group 3 events in Dubai earlier this year (including over 1m2f), which may give her a fitness edge over the others.

But, let’s not forget the apple of George Margarson’s eye that is Lucky Kristale (9/1), who won a couple of Group 2’s over 6f last summer, but has it all to prove over this longer trip, especially as her breeding offers no guarantees. Therefore, the likes of Ballydoyle’s Tapestry (8/1), could be more of a threat.

Tapestry won her first two races at the Curragh, including a Group 2 over 7f, before a creditable second to Rizeena back at the Curragh in September (7f, good to firm), where Kiyoshi (14/1) was third. Considering Tapestry never got the clearest of runs that day, she did well to get within 1l of Sunday’s favourite and may have improved over the winter. The market could provide more clues come Sunday.

Of the bigger-priced runners, Ed Dunlop’s Amazing Maria (16/1) was last seen landing a Group 3 at Goodwood in August (7f, good) and could be open to any amount of improvement under the steering of Olivier Peslier. On the subject of jockeys, Frankie Dettori, is on Richard Fahey’s Sandiva (20/1), who looks overpriced having won a Group 3 at Newmarket last month (7f, good), where Euro Charline (16/1) was under 1l behind.

Sunday’s renewal looks an open affair in which punters have a wide choice, and the filly who may provide the profits is Miss France, who was the winter favourite for this race and ran a good trial last month. Despite finishing sixth, things didn’t go her way that day, but she’s sure to be cherry-ripe on Sunday over a more suitable trip.

Here are the full trends covering the last 18 1,000 Guineas winners…

All 18 winners raced a minimum of twice as juveniles.
17 made the top four last time.
16 returned 16/1 or shorter.
16 winners made the top two of a Group race.
15 raced over 6f-7f last time.
14 had yet to win over this 1m trip.
12 had their last outing at Newbury or Newmarket, where four emerged from the Fred Darling, and two from the Rockfel. Winners of the Cheveley Park, Fillies’ Mile and Moyglare were best avoided.
Godolphin sent out three winners, Aidan O’Brien had two.