Ryanair Chase Trends – Cheltenham 2015

Now celebrating its 10th anniversary, the Ryanair Chase has built up a reliable set of trends dating back to 2005, including the solid record of those at the head of the betting.

Betting
If there is one major pointer that investors should take note of when looking for the Ryanair winner, then they need look no further than the market, as…

…all bar one of the last 10 winners returned 6/1 or shorter (33%), compared to those bigger at 1-79 (1%).

While that rule is big enough to form a manageable short-list, it’s worth noting that the clear favourite won on only two occasions (Dynaste and Riverside Theatre in the last three years), with the second favourite emerging best on five occasions for a level stakes profit of +£17.

Only Albertas Run on his second victory in the race four years ago managed to strike a blow for the bigger priced runners at 14/1, and with the remaining nine winners all triumphant from 3/1 to 6/1, it may well be that the 2015 Ryanair winner comes from that slim price band.

Age & Experience
The ages of past winners has been spread around, though the fact remains only Taranis in 2007 won as a 6yo, leaving the other nine Ryanair victors coming from the 7-10yo bracket – Albertas Run was second as an 11yo in 2012, before finishing unplaced in 2013 aged 12.

On the class front, each of the 10 winners were officially rated 152 or higher, a fact that counted against 25 losers since 2005. Interestingly, however, during the first five years of the race, four winners were rated 155, 157, 152 & 156, but the last five winners during 2010 to 2014 were rated 162, 166, 168, 165 & 169, suggesting the quality of this event is on the rise.

Experience around Cheltenham was also key, with all bar one Ryanair victor having already raced here three times or more (13%), a much healthier record than the lesser experienced runners around here with two course runs or fewer at 1-35 (3%).

Form
There weren’t many clues in terms of finishing position last time out as several winners were fifth, sixth and pulled up the occasion prior to Cheltenham. It could be worth ignoring anything outside of the 26-90 days since last run band, though, as they provided 25 losers.

The class of race last time out also provided a clue, as those who ran in a Grade 1 event were favoured having provided seven winners at 7-47 (15%), a three times better strike-rate than runners graduating from Grade 2 company at 2- 37 (5%).

Trainers & Jockeys
Most certainly a race for the big yards with Nicky Henderson, Jonjo O’Neill, Paul Nicholls and David Pipe having all won it twice apiece, while Tony McCoy and Ruby Walsh rode two winners apiece.

Trends Summary (British & Irish form only)
Of the last 10 Ryanair winners…

10 were officially rated 152 or higher – others were 0-25
10 ran during the last 26-90 days – others were 0-25
9 returned 6/1 or shorter (33%) – others were 1-79 (1%)
9 ran at Cheltenham three times or more (13%) – others were 1-35 (3%)
N Henderson, J O’Neill, P Nicholls and D Pipe won it twice apiece