Second Time Lucky For Two For Two

Betfred Mile

Outright Betting

If there is one factor to take into account before placing a wager in Friday’s big betting handicap at Glorious Goodwood, the Betfred Mile (3.10),

…then it concerns the draw, as those drawn in single figures have been favoured down the years.

Munaaser Well Drawn
It’s a fact that has seen money arrive for Sir Michael Stoute’s Munaaser (10/1), who was beaten only 1/2l by Godolphin’s Basem (6/1) in a valuable Sandown handicap earlier this month (1m). There won’t be much between them again on Friday, but Munaaser does have a 3lb pull in the weights and looks better drawn in stall 4, with Basem housed in 11.

Kite Could Fly
Also well drawn is Hughie Morrison’s Chill The Kite (12/1), who was beaten under 2l by Gm Hopkins in the Royal Hunt Cup (1m, good to firm), and enjoys a 5lb turnaround at the weights. Allocated stall 3, Chill The Kite may well go closer on Friday, especially as Gm Hopkins has been dumped wide in stall 18.

Trends Summary
Of the last 10 Mile winners…

9 ran in a Class 1 or 2 race last time
9 never raced at Ascot last time – those who did were only 1-48
8 were 3-4yo’s
8 were drawn in stall 8 or lower
8 won two handicaps or more
8 made the top five last time
7 returned 8/1 or shorter

Second Time Lucky For Two?
Also up against it in terms of the draw are You’re Fired (stall 16) and Ayaar (stall 17), though more favorably berthed is David O’Meara’s pair, Two For Two (stall 6) and So Beloved (stall 7), well priced at 20/1 apiece.

Of the pair, Two For Two, is 4lb higher than for winning at Ayr last month – the same mark as when desperately unlucky in this race 12 months ago, beaten just over 2l having been blocked.

Elsewhere, Jacob Black is respected at 14/1, despite beaten by Basem the last two times. What makes him appealing as an each-way prospect is his pace, as he can blaze the trail, and could therefore be suited to this track from a nice draw in stall 3.

As for the remaining “well-drawn” runners, then Andrew Balding’s Merry Me (20/1) also has plenty of early pace as was shown when second in a valuable Epsom handicap last month, while The Rectifier showed more last time when dropped in the weights and may build on that.

Recommended Bets
Munaaser looks to hold good prospects, but Two For Two was very unlucky in this race last year and could gain compensation from the same mark, granted better luck in running.

*Prices correct at time of publication