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Spain v Italy Prediction, Preview & Odds – Nations League Semi-Final

We have a Spain v Italy prediction along with the betting odds for you ahead of their Nations League Semi-Final this Thursday night.

How To Watch Spain v Italy – Nations League Semi-Final

When? 7.45 pm, Thursday, June 15th.

Where?  De Grolsch Veste, Enschede.

TV Channel? Virgin Media 2, Viaplay Sports 1

The Form – Spain v Italy

Spain’s Form

The Spanish enjoyed a period of dominance on the international stage from 2008-2012. However, in recent years their “Golden Generation” has dried up as they transition to a new generation.

Following their shock Round of 16 elimination from the 2022 World Cup at the hands of Morocco on penalties Luis Enrique resigned as Spanish manager. This vacancy was filled by former Spanish U19, U21 and U23 coach Luis de la Fuente who took over from Enrique on the 8th of December, 2022.

Since starting in the Spanish senior role, de la Fuente has had mixed success. In his first game in charge he led La Furia Roja to a 3-0 victory against Norway in March. However, in their second fixture of the international window they suffered a shock 2-0 defeat to Scotland in Hampden Park.

It remains early days in the de la Fuente reign so we will have to allow him longer before we can cast questions on what changes he is making. There can be no doubts that a victory in this match and success in this tournament will be a top priority for the new man in charge.

Italy’s Form

A curious case are the Italians when it comes to their performances in recent years on the international stage. On one hand, they are the reigning Euro 2020 Champions but on the other hand, they failed to qualify for the 2022 World Cup and also failed to qualify for the World Cup in 2018.

Former Man City and Inter Milan manager Roberto Mancini has undoubtedly done an excellent job as Italian manager since taking over in 2018 aside from their failure to qualify for the 2022 World Cup. The Italians came third in the 2020/21 Nations League too and overall have a win rate of  61.02% under Mancini since he took over in May 2018.

Italy commenced their UEFA Euros 2024 Qualifying Campaign in March at home where they lost 1-2 to England in a tight encounter. In that game they had more possession and shots but a lower XG than England.

In their other fixture of the International Window, they had a comfortable 0-2 victory over Malta although many would have expected them to score a few more against the world’s 172nd ranked side.

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Predicted Lineups

Spain Predicted XI

Spain Predicted Lineup - Spain v Italy Nations League Semi-Final 2023

Italy Predicted XI

Italy Predicted Lineup - Nations League Semi-Final 2023

Key Players To Watch

Dani Olmo

In a Spanish side which is without a natural goal-scorer their primary attacking threat could be the RB Leipzig attacking midfielder/winger Dani Olmo.

The 25-year-old has scored 5 goals and provided 11 assists in club football this season. Olmo is one of the best dribblers around ranking in the 89th percentile for successful take ons. He will also help the Spanish attack through his link-up play with lay-offs and key passes ranking in the 76th percentile for progressive passes 77th for shot-creating actions and in the 90th percentile for assists.

An in-form Olmo will be crucial to Spain getting themselves a goal and getting over the line against Italy in this game.

Gianluigi Donnarumma

The Italian Number 1 and PSG shot-stopper may still be quite young for a keeper at 24 years of age but sensationally he has already been playing regular first-team football for eight years.

The ‘keeper was famously a teen prodigy following his breakthrough at AC Milan when 16. He has already made 323 club appearances in total throughout his club career at Milan and now PSG while he has put laced it up 52 times for Italy.

Donnarumma is an excellent shot-stopper regularly pulling off excellent reflex saves. His save percentage of 75.9% puts him in the 85th percentile along with a post-shot XG-GA ranking in the 83rd percentile. Italy’s number one is also a decent penalty stopper as evidenced by his performance in the 2020 Euros final.

He is also competent against crosses but the one drawback to his game is his uncharacteristically poor kicking distribution for a modern-day keeper.

Spain v Italy Head-To-Head Results

Italy 1-2 Spain | 2021 UEFA Nations League Finals

Italy 1-1 Spain AET (Italy won on Penalties 4-2) | UEFA Euro 2020

Spain 3-0 Italy | 2018 FIFA World Cup Qualifier

Italy 1-1 Spain | 2018 FIFA World Cup Qualifier

Italy 2-0 Spain | UEFA Euro 2016

Spain v Italy Betting Odds

The odds makers make Spain 23/20 favourites to win in 90 minutes. The draw is 21/10 while Italy are 12/5 to win in 90 minutes.

Spain are 6/10 to qualify for the Nations League final while Italy are 5/4 to advance to the final.

Spain v Italy Odds - Nations League Semi-Final 2023

Spain v Italy Prediction & Best Bet

Prediction: Spain 0-1 Italy

Spain are very slight favourites but are undergoing a transitionary period under their new coach. Italy on the other hand, despite their non-appearance at the World Cup and defeat from England back in March, are a much more settled side.

The one thing in Spain’s favour is that the Inter Milan contingent in the Italian squad, which there are five of, could be tired from the Champions League Final. However, I think Italy still win this one narrowly.

Best Bet: Total Goals Under 1.5 @ 7/4

In this year’s other Nations League semi-final the Netherlands take on Croatia and you can check out our preview of that game in our Netherlands v Croatia Prediction post.

Click Below For All Our Spain v Italy Odds

Spain v Italy Odds Price Boosts - Nations League Semi-Final 2023

*Prices subject to fluctuation

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