US Open Trends – No Tournament For Old Men
US Open 2014
Older golfers hold a poor record at the US Open but how does the younger talent fair out here?
No Tournament For Old Men
The last two winners of the British Open were in their early forties, and Angel Cabrera came close to scooping the Masters prize in 2013, but the stats show that when it comes to the big three tournaments on U.S. soil, oldies are at a disadvantage.
No player aged over 39 has won a U.S. based Major this century, which means you can discount Phil Mickelson and Lee Westwood, amongst others.
Too Much Too Young
But don’t let the last trend suck you into going to the other extreme. Only three players under the age of 29 have won the U.S. Open in the modern era: Tiger Woods, Rory McIlroy and Ernie Els. It clearly takes a special golfer to win this event in their twenties and Jordan Speith, Jason Day and Rickie Fowler aren’t in the same class.
Give Me A Break
It is an unusual trend, but seven of the last eight U.S. Open winners were winning their first Major. The exception, as so often when it comes to trends, was Tiger Woods, in 2008. If this really is the ‘breakthrough’ Major, then that means we can safely put a line through several of those at the top of the betting, including Rory McIlroy, Adam Scott and Bubba Watson.
Have I Been Here Before?
Since 1976, only two players have won the U.S. Open with fewer than three previous tournament appearances under their belt. Ernie Els in 1994 and Webb Simpson in 2012 defied the trend, but three previous outings does generally seem to be the minimum experience requirement, which means we can rule out Jimmy Walker.
This Place Brings Back Happy Memories
Although the venue for this event changes every year, it is played on fairly similar courses and the challenge doesn’t vary that much. So you might expect some degree of previous success in the tournament to be a pre-requisite, and history is on your side. Since 1970, only three players have won the U.S. Open without having previously registered a top twenty finish in the event.
Stats, Stats, Stats
There are a couple of statistical trends worth mentioning. To win a Major you’d expect a player to be in reasonable touch and you’d be right. In the last six years, the winner of the US Open has been ranked in the top 60 on the PGA Tour for both scoring average and birdie average.
Applying these trends to the US Open field leaves us with a shortlist of six, including two players at large odds. With Boylesports once again paying out down to fifth place both Paul Casey at 80/1 and Ryan Moore at 100/1 are worth backing each-way. Boylesports are also giving CASH BACK if your selection finishes second or third, including ties!
Matt Kuchar @ 28/1
Dustin Johnson @ 30/1
Sergio Garcia @ 33/1
Luke Donald @ 40/1
Paul Casey @ 80/1 each-way
Ryan Moore @ 100/1 each-way