Yes Vote For Rene Mathis In Scotland

It’s not just the independence vote that will prove vital in Scotland this week, but also the decision made by punters in deciding who will win Saturday’s Ayr Gold Cup (3.50).

Europe’s most valuable sprint handicap promises to be another vintage renewal where the market currently goes 12/1 the field. With so much value on show, punters may want to consult the stats before sifting through the list of runners in search of some vital pointers…

Trends Summary
Covering the last 10 Ayr Gold Cup winners…

10 were 4-6yo’s
10 were males – females were 0-13
10 were drawn in stall 22 or lower
10 had two runs or less at Ayr – others with more were 0-37
10 raced twice or more in last three months – others were 0-36
9 returned 17/2 to 20/1 – others were 1-163; no favourite obliged
9 ran in a Class 2 or Class 3 last time (5%) – others were 1-72 (1%)
8 had 11-25 handicap runs (7%) – others were 2-141 (2%)
8 were officially rated 97-105
8 arrived via Goodwood, Haydock, Doncaster or Ripon
K Ryan and D Nicholls won it three times apiece

A glance at the above trends shows that 4-6yo’s rated 97-105 have performed well, which bodes well for David O’Meara’s lightly raced, Watchable (12/1), who was third in two big 7f handicaps at Ascot this summer, prior to scooping a big sprint handicap at the Curragh last weekend (6f, good to firm). This 4yo gets a 5lb penalty for that , but is improving fast and has conditions in his favour.

Irish Challenge
Another looking to make a successful step back in trip is Ger Lyons’ 5yo, Burn The Boats (16/1), who has attracted money ahead of Saturday having run well over 7f/1m of late. Not that sprinting will be new ground, as he won a big Premier Handicap at the Curragh last summer (6f, good to firm), and clearly looks aimed at this valuable pot.

Stewards’ Cup
Goodwood’s Stewards’ Cup has proven a good pointer for Ayr, which suggests Richard Fahey’s Alben Star (14/1), who was third in that big sprint, has to enter the reckoning.

Narrowly touched off in a Listed race at Newmarket since, while previously fourth in both the Wokingham and a big sprint handicap at the Curragh, Alben Star deserves a rewarded via a big prize. Ruwaiyan (20/1) was fourth at Goodwood, but has gone backwards since via two defeats.

Fahey also has the improving 3yo, Eastern Impact (16/1), who has shown remarkable consistency in some of the biggest sprint handicaps around for 3yo’s, including when winning a valuable event at Newmarket last month (6f, good to soft). He handles faster ground and it will be interesting to see how he copes with the older runners.

Stablemate, Rene Mathis (16/1) is another of the Fahey battalion who has also been in top form in the big sprints, finishing third behind Muthmir at York in July

…(6f, good to firm). A winner over 7f since, this 4yo’s flop in Ireland last weekend can be forgiven as he was squeezed out, but Saturday’s event should be run to suit.

Kevin Ryan
Elsewhere, Kevin Ryan bids for a fourth win the race since 2004 via Blaine (16/1), who arrives having won last time out. That victory in a 5f handicap at York last month, along with victory in the Scottish Stewards’ Cup (6f, good to firm) came either side of defeat in the Stewards’ Cup. However, Blaine missed the break at Goodwood that day, but he handles a big field and recent improvement will put him in good stead.

Ryan also has Captain Ramius (25/1), who won this race a few years ago, though he’ll need to bounce back from on this season’s efforts, unlike the

Recommended Bets
There are plenty in the field with likeable profiles, but one who can be relied upon to go well is Rene Mathis, whose third to the progressive, Muthmir, at York in July looks strong form.