Newmarket Day 3 Tips – Niall Cronin
Following declarations for the July Cup we had four co favourites at 11/2, Limato, Magical Memory, Twilight Son and Quiet Reflection.
Quiet Reflection is the only one of those to depart the position as co favourite and is now a 8/1 shot. Yet she still looks the value bet.
This is a fascinating race, made even more so by the inclusion of Air Force Blue. After a second disappointing Guineas run at the Curragh, Aidan O’Brien said he would not run the horse again until he got good ground over six-furlongs. He now has his conditions and was by far the best of these as a two-year-old.
Air Force Blue can be backed at 10/1 – having been 14/1 – and it is very difficult to turn anyone off backing him at those odds but his Guineas runs were below what we expected and there is that fear that he just hasn’t progressed since his juvenile season.
Quiet Reflection is a filly who has progressed though. The Commonwealth Cup winner will need to again though if she is to beat fellow Royal Ascot winners, Twilight Son and Profitable, but as of yet Quiet Reflection has shown no signs of levelling out.
The weight and sex allowance sees Quiet Reflection carry just 8st11lbs which will do her case no harm and don’t be surprised if she can add another Group One to her ever growing portfolio.
Just For The Interest
Sole Power has had an incredible career. Amazingly he has never won over six-furlongs however. Connections won this race with Slade Power two years ago and will probably struggle to repeat that here. However, the nine-year-old is 33/1 and surely worth a little fiver each way for the interest.
Look After The Guest
Buckstay is a horse who has been put up in this column a few times now but we overlook the course and distance winner on this occasion for Bossy Guest.
There is just a bit to like about this 16/1 shot who ran a blinder at Royal Ascot and will appear to relish the conditions of this race.
He was a big price in the Royal Hunt Cup when following home Portage, but on this occasion, he drops back in trip and will get the ground that he has been seen at his best on.
Bossy Guest’s only three wins have come in more modest company obviously, but they have also come over six-furlongs and maybe this drop back to seven at Newmarket, where he has won twice on quick ground, will unlock the key to his potential in a massive handicap.
*Prices correct at time of publication