Coventry City v Luton Town Prediction, Preview & Odds – Play-Off Final
We have a Coventry City v Luton Town prediction and preview plus betting odds for you ahead of Saturday’s Play-Off Final at Wembley.
Coventry City v Luton Town Match Info
Venue: Wembley Stadium, London
When? 4.45p,m , Saturday the 27th of May
What Channel? Sky Sports Football, Sky Sports Main Event
Coventry City v Luton Town Odds
Coventry City are currently priced at 21/10 to win the match in 90 minutes.
Luton Town are priced at 11/8 to do the same within 90 minutes while the draw is currently 2/1.
At the time of writing, 46% of bettors have backed a Coventry win, 4% on a draw while 50% of bettors are favouring a Luton Town win.
The Form – Coventry City v Luton Town
Coventry City’s Form
BoyleSports partners Coventry City are having a phenomenal season, following their 12th-place finish last season Manager Mark Robins has done a fantastic job guiding them to a fifth-place finish and a playoff spot. Coventry have lost just one of their last 19 matches (W9 D9), a run which started with a 1-1 draw against Luton.
Coventry overcame Middlesborough in the Semi-Final with a 0-0 draw in the first leg and a 0-1 victory in the second leg to earn their place in the final.
Coventry were members of the Premier League in the inaugural 92/93 season until 00/01 after 34 consecutive years in the top-flight. The club even fell back to the fourth tier in 17/18.
Manager Mark Robins led them to two promotions in three seasons and they are now in their third campaign in a row as a Championship side. It would be quite the story if they can secure their return to the Premier League at the weekend.
Luton Town’s Form
Luton Town finished the season in third place with 80 points, eleven off an automatic promotion spot but five points clear of Middlesbrough in fourth place.
Such was the gap between themselves and those above and below them meant their play-off faith was known very early. Despite that, they still finished with three wins and two draws in their last five league matches.
In their play-off Semi-Final they faced off against Sunderland where they lost 2-1 in the first leg but were able to overcome that deficit in the second leg winning 2-0 on the night to complete a 3-2 aggregate victory.
The Luton story is arguably even more dramatic than Coventry’s having dropped down the pyramid to non-league and the fifth tier of football for five years before three promotions in seven years got them back to the second tier in 19/20. Luton were also a founding member of the Premier League but were relegated in 91/92, this weekend will be their biggest opportunity in 31 years to return to the top division.
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Coventry City v Luton Town Preview
Coventry are likely to adopt a formation with a packed midfield which will allow them to attack through the middle whilst also having a 2-man strike force with either Gyökeres and Godden as a two or with Sheaf playing in-behind Gyökeres.
Expect Coventry to sit back in their shape and allow Luton to control the game while they look to hit them on the counter-attack. That being said they have a modest attack only scoring 58 goals during the regular season with six teams scoring more goals.
Their shyness in front of the goal continued during the playoffs in the first leg they scored no goals from an XG of 0.5 and in the second leg, they only scored one goal from an XG of 1.0 which suggests if they get a chance they are going to have to take it.
Their main threat in attack comes from the pace and power of Star Swedish Striker Viktor Gyökeres who is lethal in transition in the Championship he has the most shot involvements involving ball carries (100: 67 shots, 33 chances created) a metric he led last season with 83.
It’s no surprise that Gyökeres has scored 21 goals and contributed 10 assists during the league this season which is a direct contribution to 53% of Coventry’s league goals. He continued this run of form when assisting Brazilian Midfielder Gustavo Hamer for the crucial goal in the semi-final second leg.
Luton Town’s Defence
Luton, like Coventry, operate with a three-man backline likely to either be a 3-4-1-2 or 3-5-2. Luton are very strong defensively particularly when it comes to winning their aerial duels whether that be from defending set pieces or crosses. Tom Lockyer in particular averages 4.4 aerial duels won per match.
Further up the field in midfield on loan Aston Villa midfielder Marvelous Nakamba has a been dominant defensive force since joining in January. The loanee has made more tackles than other Championship player with Coventry’s Gustavo Hamer (170) the only player to regain possession more than him with (163).
This will be a key battle Sunday if Nakamba stops Hamer that could be crucial to deciding the winner of this game.
Nakamba is a key to Luton having the joint second-best defence in the Championship this season with only 39 goals conceded. Luton also struggle to defend leads, no side dropped more points from winning positions than them in 22/23 (27), while they also lost the first leg of the Championship play-off semi-final against Sunderland after leading.
Fortunately for them they face Coventry who struggle to come from behind as they were the only team in the Championship not to win a game from a losing position, recovering just seven points in the 19 games they trailed in (W0 D7 L12).
Luton Town’s Attack
Luton biggest attacking threat comes from attacking set-pieces and attacking down the flanks particularly through Alfie Doughty down the left-hand side of the field. Luton are not afraid to go direct either with their passes in on top of the opposition defence or regularly taking long-shots from outside the area.
Luton scored a modest 57 goals during the regular season for an average of 1.24 goals per game which was only good enough to be the tenth best attack in the division.
In their Play-Off Semi-Final they scored one goal from an XG of 0.9 in the first leg and 2 goals from an XG of 2.8 in the second leg suggesting they can release the shackles if they need to.
Their primary attacking threat comes from striker Carlton Morris who has scored 20 goals and contributed 7 assists this season. Morris didn’t score in the play-off Semi-Final, but Luton fans will be hoping he has kept the all-important goal for the final!
Coventry manager Robins has built a strong unit who have only conceded 46 goals this season which is the fourth-best defence in the league. This defensive success is built off stealing the ball from the opposition through interceptions and tackles which makes them tough to score against.
Their star man in defence is arguably Irishman and CB Luke McNally who arrived on loan from Burnley in January. McNally has gone on to start in 21/21 games while earning huge plaudits for his performances at the back.
However, despite their watertight defence, there are areas which can be exploited, down the flanks they are weak and give up lots of fouls in dangerous areas which aren’t ideal when they can be caught aerially particularly when it is an area of the game that Luton Town excel in.
Coventry v Luton Town Prediction & Best Bet
Prediction: Coventry 2-1 Luton Town AET
This is a tough game to call, and I suspect this could go all the way to penalties, or at least extra-time! I think Coventry might just sneak a victory though through a Gyökeres brace.
Coventry may have finished in fifth, but if my prediction comes through they will be promoted after spending the fewest days inside the top six of any of the four semi-finalists (17, which was 87 fewer than Luton) which would be another remarkable element to the story!
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*Prices subject to fluctuation