England v Italy Prediction post blog header image – UEFA Euro 2024 Qualifier

England v Italy Prediction, Preview & Odds – Euro 2024 Qualifier

We have an England v Italy prediction and preview plus betting odds for you ahead of Tuesday’s UEFA Euro Qualifier clash at Wembley Stadium.

How To Watch England v Italy

Venue: Wembley Stadium, London, England

When? 7.45 pm, Tuesday, October 17th

What Channel? Channel 4

England v Italy Odds

England v Italy Betting Odds – Euro 2024 Qualifier
Team Odds Chance
England 8/13 61.9%
Italy 9/2 18.2%
The Draw 13/5 27.8%

The oddsmakers England 8/13 favourites for this game. Italy are underdogs at 9/2 while the draw is priced up at 13/5.

Click Below For Our LIVE England v Italy Odds

England v Italy Betting Odds - Euro 2024 Qualifier

England v Italy Form

England’s Form

For all their critics and cynics has not been this consistent on the international stage in some time, perhaps ever. Following a fourth-place finish at the 2018 World Cup that was followed by Euro 2020 Runners-Up finish and most recently a Quarter-Final appearance at the 2022 World Cup. 

England entered their third qualifier in Group C with a 100% record after wins over Italy and Ukraine, in March two teams which were expected to be their closest challengers for qualification.

During the June International Window England asserted their dominance in the group with two comprehensive victories, first 0-4 against Malta and then 7-0 against North Macedonia from their 11 goals they had six different goal-scorers.

The September window saw them drop their first points of the group with a 1-1 draw against Ukraine before beating Home Nations rivals Scotland 1-3 in the 150th Anniversary Heritage Match

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Italy’s Form

A curious case, on one hand, they are reigning Euro 2020 Champions but on the other hand, they failed to qualify for the 2022 World Cup. On 18 August 2023, following the unexpected resignation of Roberto Mancini, Spalletti was appointed manager of the Italy national team, formally effective from 1 September 2023, signing a three-year contract until 2026.

Italy had opened their 2023 campaign poorly following a 1-2 defeat against England in the opening group game; they then defeated Malta by a paltry 0-2 scoreline. What followed was more disappointment in June losing 1-2 to Spain in the Nations League Semi-Final before they won the third-place match 2-3 against The Netherlands.

Spalleti’s first game in charge was a 1-1 away draw to North Macedonia before a 2-1 victory against Ukraine. This will be his third game in charge of his nation.

England v Italy Predicted Lineups

England Predicted XI

Formation: 4-3-3

GK: Pickford

RB: Walker, CB: Stones, CB: Maguire, LB: Trippier

DM: Rice, CM: Henderson, CM: Bellingham

RW: Foden, CF: Kane, LW: Grealish

Italy Predicted XI

Formation: 3-4-1-2

GK: Donnarumma

RB: Di Lorenzo, CM: Mancini, CM: Bastoni, LM: Dimarco

CM:: Frattesi, CM: Locatelli, CM: Barella

RW: Beradi, CF: Raspadori, LW: Chiesa

England v Italy Preview

England Tactics

Southgate no matter what the result Friday, Southgate will stick with his trusted 4-3-3 formation. England to their credit averaged 3.2 Goals Per Match this campaign which is only bettered by Spain and Portugal. They also average the most accurate long balls per match 36.2 which more often than not will come from the CBs direct to Kane and the wingers.

The English back-five will be the trusted Southgate stalwarts, Pickford, Walker, Stones, Maguire and Trippier with the latter playing a more inverted role. The CBs will be tasked with pumping long balls up to the wingers and Kane.

2/3 of the three midfield positions pick themselves, Rice is a trusted Southgate man and in fairness, he offers the defensive acumen to play the DM role required. Bellingham is arguably England’s sole World Class superstar (along with Kane) the third CM slot is up for grabs but the energy of Henderson gives him the nod.

Saka is a massive loss for Southgate, and I think Foden comes in for him at RW (a role he has played for England recently). Kane obviously leads the line and I think Grealish gets the nod at LW.

Italy Tactics

Since Spalati entered the dugout, he has favoured a 4-3-3 formation which he used against North Macedonia and Ukraine. Although at club level he was previously a proponent of the 4-2-3-1 formation so that remains an option also.

Italy had the bulk of possession in their previous game against England before the new manager so it’ll be interesting to see if that continues. I suspect it will since they’ve had 72% of the ball and 64% in his two matches in charge.

Donnarumma will be in net with Di Lorenzo at RB, the club form of Udogie for Tottenham could see him given the LB slot, but I think he will continue with Dimarco who rarely lets his country down. The brilliant Bastoni is nailed on to start and think the more mobile Mancini plays ahead of Acerbi beside him.

The combative Barella has played 2/2 of the last games, expect him to be partnered by Locatelli and Frattesi the latter of who scored a brilliant brace to help them beat Ukraine 2-1

The front three will likely be the in-form winger pairing of Beradi and Chiesa with Raspadori leading the line.

England v Italy Head-To-Head

Per FootyStats England and Italy have played eight times since 2014 with England winning out on one occasion, four draws taking place and the Italians have been victorious twice.

71% (5/7) of the matches have had over 1.5 Goals scored. However, interestingly only 29% (2/7) have had over 2.5 Goals and 71% (5/7) of the matches have had BTTS.

The most common scoreline in the fixture has been a 1-1 draw which has happened 42% (3/7) of the games.

The most famous recent fixture between the sides was the Euro 2020 Final which after a 1-1 AET draw, Italy overcame England 3-2 on penalties.

England v Italy Recent Results

23 March 2023 Euro Qualification Italy 1-2 England

23 September 2022 UEFA Nations League Italy 1-0 England

11 June 2022 UEFA Nations League England 0-0 Italy

11 July 2021 Euro 2020 Final Italy 1-1 England (Italy Win 3-2 on Penalties)

27 March 2018 Friendlies England 1-1 Italy

England v Italy Prediction & Best Bet

Prediction: England 1-1 Italy

The head-to-head record and the historical stats between these countries mean that Tuesday promises to be a tight affair no matter what the result.

England are the top-scorers in the group with sixteen goals scored an average of 3.2 goals per game and have the meanest defence with just two goals per game conceded an average of 0.4 across their four games.

Something tells me that Italy has a chance in this one though.

Best Bet: Italy +1 @ 11/10

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England v Italy Odds Price Boosts - Euro 2024 Qualifier

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