Kerry v Derry Prediction post blog header image – All-Ireland Semi-Final 2023

Kerry v Derry Prediction, Preview & Odds – All-Ireland Semi-Final

We have a Kerry v Derry prediction for you plus the odds as we preview this All-Ireland semi-final between the Munster and Ulster champions.

How To Watch Kerry v Derry

When? 4pm, Sunday, July 16th

Where? Croke Park, Dublin

TV Channels: RTÉ 2 & BBC 2 NI

Kerry v Derry Preview

Kerry’s Form

Path To The All-Ireland Semi-Final

Munster Championship

Kerry 0-25 Tipperary 0-05 | Munster Semi-Final

Kerry 5-14 Clare 0-15 | Munster Final

All-Ireland Group 1

Mayo 1-19 Kerry 0-17 | Round 1

Kerry 1-14 Cork 0-15 | Round 2

Kerry 5-24 Louth 0-11 | Round 3

All-Ireland Quarter-Final

Kerry 2-18 Tyrone 0-12

League Form

Kerry came into this year’s National League as both defending league and All-Ireland champions after a spectacular 2022 season. There was some chatter coming out of Kerry that manager Jack O’Connor wasn’t ‘targeting’ the league this year, in other words squad development and getting key players in shape for Championship were the main objectives.

The Kingdom very much looked like a team that didn’t have their focus on the league as they underwhelmed throughout the competition before eventually stumbling to a 5th placed finish with 3 wins and 4 draws.

The debate around how teams should approach the National League is a fascinating one. One stat that tells a lot about how important the league has become in modern gaelic football is that only one team has gone on to win the All-Ireland in the last ten years after having a losing record in that year’s National League. Interestingly, that team was Kerry in 2014.

Championship Form

After a disappointing league campaign the question was – could Kerry flick a switch come Championship? Could they suddenly start playing like the 2022 version of this team that dominated gaelic football? The answer it turns out was no, they couldn’t.

Leaving aside the procession that is also known as the Munster Championship, which Kerry won again via victories over Tipperary and then Clare, the Kingdom struggled through their All-Ireland group stage.

Kerry were drawn in the same group as Mayo, Louth and Cork. The opening game of their All-Ireland series campaign saw them welcome Mayo to Killarney in a game they went into as strong favourites. They were unable to live up to that favouritism as Mayo handed them their first Championship loss in Killarney since 1995 on a scoreline of 0-17 to 1-19.

Next up for Jack O’Connor’s men was a trip to Páirc Uí Chaoimh to take on old rivals Cork. Once again this team looked nothing like they did last year as it took a David Clifford penalty (which shouldn’t have been a free not a penalty) to secure a 2-point victory.

The final group game came against Louth in Portlaoise. This was the first time that Kerry looked anything resembling their old selves as they blitzed Louth 5-24 to 0-11 with Seán O’Shea scoring 1-08 and David Clifford adding 2-04.

That win was surprisingly enough to secure top spot in the group as Mayo collapsed in the final 15 minutes against Cork to surrender a 6-point lead and lose out on automatic qualification to the All-Ireland quarter-finals.

Kerry were handed the tough task of taking on Tyrone in their All-Ireland quarter-final. This was a banana skin to say the least for the Kingdom who have really struggled against Tyrone down through the years including losing to them in the semi-finals in 2021 when they were heavily fancied.

However, Kerry saved their best football for when it mattered. They came out and played like their 2022 selves to blow Tyrone out of the water and saunter home to a 12-point victory.

Derry’s Form

Path To The All-Ireland Semi-Final

Ulster Championship

Derry 3-17 Fermanagh 2-08 | Quarter-Final

Derry 1-21 Monaghan 2-10 | Ulster Semi-Final

Derry 1-15 Armagh 0-18 (Derry won 3-1 on penalties) | Ulster Final

All-Ireland Group 4

Derry 0-14 Monaghan 0-14 | Round 1

Derry 3-14 Donegal 1-15 | Round 2

Derry 1-20 Clare 1-13 | Round 3

All-Ireland Quarter-Final

Derry 1-12 Cork 1-08

League Form

Derry had a very strong spring this year as they booked a spot in the Division 2 Final after going unbeaten in the round robin stage of the competition with 6 wins and 1 draw from their 7 games. Included in that record was a win against Dublin who they would face in the League Final.

Although the mission of securing Division 1 football had been secured Derry would still have liked to win that league final and lay down a marker heading into the Championship. They were fancied by many against a Dublin team that had been hit and miss in the league up until that point.

Unfortunately for Derry, they were blitzed by Dublin in the second half of that final and it left a sour taste in the mouth heading into Championship. Was this a team that could really compete with the big guns in Croke Park come the business end of the Championship? We will soon find out.

Championship Form

Derry came into the Ulster Championship as defending champions but with a point to prove after the disappointing nature of their league final defeat at the hands of Dublin.

To be fair to Derry they went about their business in impressive fashion in Ulster as they beat Fermanagh and then Monaghan with ease on their way to booking a spot in a second consecutive Ulster Final.

They were given a real test in that Ulster Final by Armagh. The game could have gone either way but after 90 minutes of intense Ulster Championship football nothing could separate the sides and so penalties were required. Derry held their nerve from the spotkicks to land their second Ulster Championship in a row.

The Oak Leaf County were drawn in Group 4 of the novel All-Ireland group stage alongside Monaghan, Donegal and Clare.

The first game came against Monaghan who they’d comfortably beaten in the Ulster semi-final weeks previous. Monaghan didn’t make things so easy for Derry the second time around. The game finished as a draw but Monaghan really should have won the game after leading for the vast majority of the 70 minutes.

Derry made amends for that first round draw with comfortable wins in their next two games against Donegal (admittedly the worst Donegal team we’ve seen in the past decade) and then Clare to secure their All-Ireland quarter-final spot.

The opposition in that quarter-final was Cork who were coming into the game in high spirits after victories over both Mayo and Roscommon. Derry didn’t have it all their own way in that game but their quality shone through in the last quarter as they saw off a strong Rebel challenge.

Weather Forecast

According to Met Eireann there is a 10% chance of rain at throw-in time (4pm) this then rises to 15% by 5pm.

It is expected to be quite a windy day winds of 19 km/h during the game while the temperature is predicted to be 17 degrees at thrown-in time.

Key Players To Watch

David Clifford (Kerry)

The best footballer in Ireland right now and it’s not particularly close. Clifford possesses everything that you could wish from a forward in gaelic football.

He not only beats his markers for pace but he will also field the ball over his defender to go with his deadly accurate shooting.

The Fossa man was quiet last time out against Tyrone but that had a lot to do with the amount of special attention he was given by the Tyrone defence which opened up space for his fellow forwards.

Despite a quiet afternoon he still managed to pull off one of the most sublime pieces of skill you will ever see as he picked out an incredible blind kick pass as he was being rushed over the sideline by two Tyrone defenders.

An indicator of how Clifford has been again this year is his status as 9/4 favourite to win Footballer of the Year.

(Derry) Shane McGuigan

There are several Derry players that I could have highlighted here including the likes of Conor Glass and Brendan Rogers in midfield but I think there is no more important player to Derry’s chances this Sunday than Shane McGuigan.

The Slaughtneil forward has been critical for Derry in their success these past two years. He has quickly become one of the best forwards in the country and could be on the way to his first All-Star award.

McGuigan has scored 2-46 for Derry this year with 1-20 of that tally coming from open play. If Derry are to pull off the upset this Sunday evening they will need the Slaughtneil man to be at his very best.

Kerry v Derry Head-To-Head Championship Results

Kerry 1-17 Derry 1-11 | 2004 All-Ireland Semi-Final

Kerry 5-14 Derry 1-10 | 1976 All-Ireland Semi-Final

Kerry 0-23 Derry 0-10 | 1970 All-Ireland Semi-Final

Derry 2-06 Kerry 2-05 | 1958 All-Ireland Semi-Final

These two teams have only met four times ever in the Championship. Kerry have had the better of those meetings with 3 wins with the most recent of those victories coming in 2004.

Kerry v Derry Betting Odds

Kerry – 1/3

Derry – 10/3

Draw – 17/2

Handicap – Kerry -4

Kerry go into this game as the strong favourites at odds of 1/3. Derry have been priced up as the 10/3 underdogs. While you can back the draw after 70 minutes at 17/2.

Kerry v Derry Odds - All-Ireland Semi-Final 2023

Kerry v Derry Prediction & Best Bet

Prediction: Kerry 1-14 Derry 0-13

I’m predicting that Kerry will win this game by pulling away in the last 10 minutes. If it rains that would play into Derry’s hands but Kerry should have the forwards to pick off the scores that will get them over the line.

Best Bet: Kerry to win by 1-4 points inclusive @ 5/2

Click Below For All Our Kerry v Derry Betting Odds

Kerry v Derry Odds Price Boosts - All-Ireland Semi-Final 2023

*Prices subject to fluctuation

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