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NFL MVP Odds & Betting Favourites – Can Anyone Top Lamar?

In this post, we take a look at the NFL MVP odds and give you the rundown on each of the betting favourites’ chances of winning this prestigious award.

The award is presented to the player judged to be the most valuable in the National Football League during the regular season. There are 50 sportswriters who make up the panel of NFL MVP voters.


2023 NFL MVP Betting Odds
Player Odds Chance
Lamar Jackson 1/200 99.5%
Dak Prescott 20/1 4.8%
Brock Purdy 20/1 4.8%
Josh Allen 40/1 2.4%
Christian McCaffrey 40/1 2.4%
Patrick Mahomes 200/1 0.5%
Tua Tagovailoa 200/1 0.5%
Tyreek Hill 200/1 0.5%

What Makes an NFL MVP?

Before we analyse the chances of each of the favourites to win this season’s NFL MVP award let’s first look at what the trends are for NFL MVP winners in the last 20 years.

NFL MVPs by Position Since 2003

NFL MVPs By Position Since 2003
Position MVPs %
QB 17 85%
RB 3 15%

MVP Is A Quarterback Award

The NFL MVP has been awarded to a quarterback in 17 of the last 20 seasons. Given that, it’s fair to say that the MVP is a quarterback dominated award. And there are no signs of that changing anytime soon either in today’s pass happy, analytically driven league.

NFL MVP Stats By Year
Year Player Total Yards Total TDs INTs Team Record
2022 P Mahomes 5,608 45 12 14-3
#1 Seed
2021 A Rodgers 4,212 40 4 13-4
#1 Seed
2020 A Rodgers 4,442 51 5 13-3
#1 Seed
2019 L Jackson 4,333 43 6 14-2
#1 Seed
2018 P Mahomes 5,369 52 12 12-4
#1 Seed
2017 T Brady 4,605 32 8 13-3
#1 Seed
2016 M Ryan 5,061 38 7 11-5
#2 Seed
2015 C Newton 4,473 45 10 15-1
#1 Seed
2014 A Rodgers 4,650 40 5 12-4
#2 Seed
2013 P Manning 5,446 56 10 13-3
#1 Seed
Average 4,820 44 8 #1 Seed

There are a few notable trends from this table of the last 10 NFL MVPs.

First of all, a QB has won the NFL MVP in each of the last 10 seasons.

Secondly, each MVP winner has led their team to a top 2 seed in their respective conference, 8 times the #1 seed and twice the #2 seed.

Other notable trends: each MVP has accounted for; 4,200+ total yards, 32 total TDs, 12 or less INTs.

NFL MVP Betting Favourites

Lamar Jackson


The NFL MVP favourite is Lamar Jackson at 1/200 according to the latest NFL betting odds at BoyleSports. Those odds imply that Jackson has a 99.5% chance of winning the 2023 NFL MVP award.


Team’s Seed: #1 seed in the AFC

Total Yards: 4,499

Total TDs: 29

Total INTs: 7


Jackson is a virtual certainty for the NFL MVP award this season based on the current betting odds. As he should be.

In what has been a weak year of quarterback play in the NFL, the 2019 MVP put his name into the mix for the award going into the final weeks of the season. Down the stretch it was between Jackson, 49ers QB Brock Purdy, and Cowboys QB Dak Prescott.

Jackson’s performance against the 49ers in week 16 in a primetime game more or less knocked 9ers QB Purdy out of the MVP race as the Ravens cruised to a 33-19 win in San Francisco. That same week, Cowboys QB Dak Prescott’s MVP aspirations were dealt a devastating blow as he struggled with his team well beaten by the Buffalo Bills in a crucial late season game.

Jackson more or less sealed the deal on the MVP race in week 17 against Miami as he put up 5 TDs to lead his team to a 56-19 win against the Dolphins, one of the other top seeds in the AFC.


As the odds suggest, anyone other than Lamar Jackson being awarded the NFL MVP would be a shock.

Dak Prescott


The co-2nd favourite for the 2023 NFL MVP award is Dak Prescott at 20/1 per the latest NFL odds at BoyleSports. Those odds suggest that Prescott has a 4.8% chance of winning the award.


Team’s Seed: #2 seed in the NFC with a win in week 18.

Total Yards: 4,479

Total TDs: 34

Total INTs: 8


Prescott has a pretty good MVP case going by his resume this year. If the Cowboys win in week 18 and secure the #2 seed in the NFC then Prescott would have a resume that checks the boxes of previous MVP winners in the last 10 years.

You can make a good case for Prescott to be more deserving of the MVP over Jackson. The Cowboys QB has more TDs, will finish the season with more yards, and has a higher QB rating.

What Dak lacks however is a signature primetime performance down the home stretch of the season. The Cowboys played the Lions in week 17 of the season in a primetime game and while they won and Prescott had 300+ yards, it wasn’t a vintage performance from Dak and Dallas probably would have lost if it weren’t for a controversial penalty against the Lions at the end of the game.


In theory, Prescott has a good argument for MVP but two late season losses and subpar performances by Dak will likely be the reason that he comes up short.

Brock Purdy


The other co-2nd favourite in the NFL MVP odds market is Brock Purdy at 20/1. Those odds imply that Purdy has a 4.8% chance of winning the MVP.


Team’s Seed: #1 seed in the NFC

Total Yards: 4,424

Total TDs: 33

Total INTs: 11


Brock Purdy had a great case for NFL MVP going into week 16 of the season. In fact, he was the favourite at that time.

A lot of people, including myself, would have argued that Purdy didn’t deserve the MVP even then despite his team being a top seed and him having great stats. Why? Because he is surrounded by more talent on offence than any other QB in the league along with having the best play caller in the NFL in the form of Head Coach Kyle Shanahan.

Nevertheless, if Purdy put up good stats and the 49ers beat the Ravens in that week 16 home primetime game he would have had a great case for MVP. However, that’s not what happened. Instead, Purdy had the worst game of his career with 0 TDs and 4 INTs. That performance essentially ended his MVP aspirations.


Great stats but his horrific week 16 primetime performance against Baltimore will be the reason he doesn’t win this award along with the question marks around how much of his success is down to him and how much is down to the talent around him.

Click Below For Our LIVE NFL MVP Odds

NFL MVP Betting Odds

Recent NFL MVP Winners

NFL MVP Winners Since 2000
Year Winner Position
2022 Patrick Mahomes QB
2021 Aaron Rodgers QB
2020 Aaron Rodgers QB
2019 Lamar Jackson QB
2018 Patrick Mahomes QB
2017 Tom Brady QB
2016 Matt Ryan QB
2015 Cam Newton QB
2014 Aaron Rodgers QB
2013 Peyton Manning QB
2012 Adrian Peterson RB
2011 Aaron Rodgers QB
2010 Tom Brady QB
2009 Peyton Manning QB
2008 Peyton Manning QB
2007 Tom Brady QB
2006 LaDainian Tomlinson RB
2005 Shaun Alexander RB
2004 Peyton Manning QB
2003 Peyton Manning/Steve McNair QB
2002 Rich Gannon QB
2001 Kurt Warner QB
2000 Marshall Faulk RB

Players With Most NFL MVP Awards

Most NFL MVP Awards Won
Player MVPs
Peyton Manning 5
Aaron Rodgers 4
Tom Brady 3
Brett Favre 3
Jim Brown 3
Johnny Unitas 3
Patrick Mahomes 2
Kurt Warner 2
Steve Young 2
Joe Montana 2

*Prices subject to fluctuation.

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