The Oscars Best Actor Odds, Favourites & Preview – 96th Academy Awards
In this post, we take a look at The Oscars Best Actor odds and preview the chances of each of the betting favourites for the prestigious award.
The Best Actor Oscar, officially known as the Academy Award for Best Actor in a Leading Role, is presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences.
This year the Best Actor Oscar winner will be announced at the 96th Academy Awards ceremony on March 10th.
Below you can find everything you need to know about the top contenders for this year’s award plus key information about previous Best Actor award winners.
The Oscars Best Actor Odds
| The Oscars Best Actor Odds – 96th Academy Awards | |||
| Actor | Film | Odds | Chance |
| Cillian Murphy | Oppenheimer | 4/6 | 60% |
| Bradley Cooper | Maestro | 13/8 | 38.1% |
| Paul Giamatti | The Holdovers | 7/1 | 12.5% |
| Leonardo DiCaprio | Killers of the Flower Moon | 8/1 | 11.1% |
| Colman Domingo | Rustin | 9/1 | 10% |
| Jeffrey Wright | American Fiction | 11/1 | 9.1% |
| Willem Dafoe | Poor Things | 12/1 | 7.7% |
| Andrew Scott | All of Us Strangers | 18/1 | 5.3% |
| Ryan Gosling | Barbie | 18/1 | 5.3% |
| Barry Keoghan | Saltburn | 22/1 | 4.3% |
| Kingsley Ben-Adir | Bob Marley: One Love | 22/1 | 4.3% |
| Teo Yoo | Past Lives | 28/1 | 3.4% |
| Adam Driver | Ferrari | 40/1 | 2.4% |
| Joaquin Phoenix | Napoleon | 40/1 | 2.4% |
| Zac Efron | The Iron Claw | 40/1 | 2.4% |
Best Actor Oscar Betting Favourites
Cillian Murphy
The favourite to win the Best Actor Oscar is Cillian Murphy at odds of 4/6 according to the latest Oscars odds at BoyleSports. Those odds imply that Murphy has a 60% chance of picking up the prestigious award this March.
The 47-year-old Cork native is bidding to win his first ever Academy Award thanks to his portrayal of J. Robert Oppenheimer in Oppenheimer (2023). Murphy has received rave reviews for his performance in the Christopher Nolan-directed movie which tells the story of the life of the man who created the atomic bomb.
The Irishman, who outside of Oppenheimer is best known for his portrayal of Tommy Shelby in the hit British series Peaky Blinders, stole the show in a movie that included a star studded cast of Emily Blunt, Matt Damon, Robert Downey Jr., Florence Pugh, Casey Affleck, and Rami Malek.
Murphy’s case for the award was boosted after his nomination for the Best Actor award at the Golden Globes. Fellow Irish film stars Andrew Scott (All of Us Strangers), and Barry Keoghan (Saltburn) also earned nominations in the same category. That meant half of the Best Actor Golden Globe nominations (3 out of 6) went to Irish actors.
Bradley Cooper
The 2nd favourite for the Best Actor Oscar is Bradley Cooper at 13/8 per the latest Oscars odds at BoyleSports. Those odds suggest that Cooper has a 38.1% chance of being crowned the winner in this category.
The 49-year-old is breathing down Cillian Murphy’s neck, metaphorically speaking of course, in the race for the Best Actor Oscar. The US film star has put himself in contention for the award following his portrayal of Leonard Bernstein in Maestro (2023), a movie which Cooper also directed and co-wrote.
There is a similarity between both Murphy and Cooper here in that they both had the role of depicting the life of a famous historical figure. Despite nine nominations, including Best Actor for Silver Linings Playbook (2013) American Sniper (2015), and A Star Is Born (2019), Cooper is yet to win an Academy Award.
Paul Giamatti
The 3rd favourite to receive the Academy Award for Best Actor in a Leading Role is Paul Giamatti at odds of 7/1. Those odds imply that Giamatti has a 12.5% chance of winning the award.
The 56-year-old, who hails from Connecticut, is looking to secure his second Academy Award nomination for his portrayal of Paul Hunham in The Holdovers. His 1st nomination came back in 2006 when he was nominated for Best Supporting Actor for his performance as Joe Gould in Cinderella Man (2005).
Giamatti is a dark horse to scoop the Best Actor Academy Award this March. While he might not have the star power of Cillian Murphy and Bradley Cooper, he has been hailed for his performance in The Holdovers with many film critics making him their top pick for the award.
At odds of 7/1 Paul Giamatti would be my pick for best value bet in the Best Actor Oscar category.
Leonardo DiCaprio
Next up in the betting is Leonardo DiCaprio who can be backed at 8/1. Those odds suggest that DiCaprio has a 11.1% chance of picking up the Best Actor Oscar.
One of Hollywood’s leading men for almost three decades now, the 49-year-old is looking to win the Best Actor Academy Award for the second time. The Los Angeles native is likely to earn a nomination for the prestigious award courtesy of his depiction of Ernest Burkhart in Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon (2023).
His first win in this category, which many people felt was long overdue at the time, came in 2016 for his performance in The Revenant (2015).
If DiCaprio earns a nomination this year, as he is expected to, it would be his 6th nomination for the Best Actor Oscar and put him above the likes of Robert De Niro and Al Pacino and level with Daniel Day-Lewis.
Most critics who publish their Oscar picks online have DiCaprio in their top 5 for the Best Actor award and many have him in their top 3. If you are to put a lot of weight into these predictions then DiCaprio looks like fair value at odds of 8/1 although I wouldn’t be rushing to bet him myself.
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Recent Best Actor Oscar Winners
| Best Actor Academy Award Winners Since 2000 | ||
| Year | Actor | Film |
| 2022 | Brendan Fraser | The Whale |
| 2021 | Will Smith | King Richard |
| 2020 | Anthony Hopkins | The Father |
| 2019 | Joaquin Phoenix | Joker |
| 2018 | Rami Malek | Bohemian Rhapsody |
| 2017 | Gary Oldman | Darkest Hour |
| 2016 | Casey Affleck | Manchester by the Sea |
| 2015 | Leonardo DiCaprio | The Revenant |
| 2014 | Eddie Redmayne | The Theory of Everything |
| 2013 | Matthew McConaughey | Dallas Buyers Club |
| 2012 | Daniel Day-Lewis | Lincoln |
| 2011 | Jean Dujardin | The Artist |
| 2010 | Colin Firth | The King’s Speech |
| 2009 | Jeff Bridges | Crazy Heart |
| 2008 | Sean Penn | Milk |
| 2007 | Daniel Day-Lewis | There Will Be Blood |
| 2006 | Forest Whitaker | The Last King of Scotland |
| 2005 | Philip Seymour Hoffman | Capote |
| 2004 | Jamie Foxx | Ray |
| 2003 | Sean Penn | Mystic River |
| 2002 | Adrien Brody | The Pianist |
| 2001 | Denzel Washington | Training Day |
| 2000 | Russell Crowe | Gladiator |
Most Best Actor Oscar Award Wins
| Multiple Time Best Actor Award Winners | ||
| Actor | Wins | Nominations |
| Daniel Day-Lewis | 3 | 6 |
| Spencer Tray | 2 | 9 |
| Jack Nicholson | 2 | 8 |
| Marlon Brando | 2 | 7 |
| Dustin Hoffman | 2 | 7 |
| Gary Cooper | 2 | 5 |
| Tom Hanks | 2 | 5 |
| Fredric March | 2 | 5 |
| Sean Penn | 2 | 5 |
| Anthony Hopkins | 2 | 4 |
*Prices subject to fluctuation.
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