Paul Callaghan’s Racing Tips Saturday March 27th
Paul Callaghan gives his tips and predictions ahead of Saturday’s racing.
2pm Doncaster Mile Stakes over 1 mile.
I like the William Haggas trained Montatham ridden by James Doyle. Montatham ran better than his finishing position suggests, finishing 19th of 27 in the Cambridgeshire on his final run last season. Drawn on the far side away from the pace, he raced in a group of seven and was still there with a chance passing the 3 furlong marker.
He’s won first time out for the last two seasons, and has won on going descriptions ranging from soft to good to firm, so he’s versatile as far as the going is concerned.
With 3mm of rain falling on Town Moor Friday morning, and more forecast throughout Friday afternoon, I don’t think it will cause problems for Montatham.
3.10 Lincoln (Heritage Handicap) over 1 mile.
With 5 places rewarding each way supporters here at BoyleSports, I think Grove Ferry represents value at around 16/1. I could see his odds shortening closer to the off time. Grove Ferry finished second beaten by a half length behind Tomfre (rated 109 – highest rated in this race is 105) – on heavy ground at Doncaster last October.
Partnered by Oisin Murphy on that occasion, Grove Ferry was drawn in stall 2 on the far side and showed a good turn of foot when hitting the front 2 furlongs out. From there he pretty much raced on his own with Tomfre making his winning run down the centre of the course.
Grove Ferry has had a nice pipe opener for this race, having won on the all-weather at Lingfield under Ryan Moore at the end of February. I thought he showed a real good ground action on the all-weather which makes his second place behind Tomfre all the more impressive and gives encouragement lining up here.
The talented William Carver takes the mount and claims a valuable 5lbs on the Andrew Balding trained 4 year old and incidentally, 4 year olds have a good record in the Lincoln.
3.45 Cammidge Trophy Stakes (Listed Race) over 6 furlongs.
Brando is the highest rated in the field and on his best form, would prove difficult to beat. That being said his form is a little hit and miss, so I think he is worth taking on.
Emaraaty Ana is interesting having his first start after being gelded and having a wind operation.
Just Frank has solid 2 year old form from last season and has serious potential but it’s never easy for 3 year olds taking on older horses. He gets weight for age but 3 year olds are physically weaker than their older rivals, so it will be a fair performance should he come home in front.
Mr Lupton gets a tentative nod for trainer Richard Fahey and jockey Paul Hanagan. Mr Lupton is a Group 2 winner at the Curragh, that victory came in May 2019. His form is a little in and out, I think he’ll either run a cracker and finish in the first three or finish out the back, I don’t think there will be an in between.
He’s versatile as far as tactics are concerned, so I don’t think stall 3 poses much of an inconvenience. I’m taking a chance that Mr Lupton’s first run of the season will be the time to catch him, when he’s fresh.
2.15 Rosebery Handicap (London Middle Distance Series Qualifier) over 1m 3f.
You’ll not get rich backing him if he wins, but I think Al Zaraqaan is a horse to follow this season. The son of Golden Horn is unbeaten in all three starts, since being well beaten on racecourse debut at Newmarket in October 2019.
On his first start of the season, I expect him to race a bit keenly and it could test the skills of jockey Richard Kingscote to get him switched off early. If Al Zaraqaan switches off and gets into a nice rhythm, as his odds reflect, he will take the beating. I think in time, he could develop into a Group horse.
2.50 Novices’ Handicap Hurdle over 2m 3f.
It might be a little harsh, but I would question the resolute of Good Ball who despite looking a likely winner for most of the Newbury home straight, he finished second behind Gowel Road on the 21st of February.
He wears a tongue tie and I wonder if his wind is catching him when he’s looking for that one final push,
…hence how he got beaten on his last run. Hooper was a fortuitous winner at Hereford on his last start, following the final flight departure of long time leader Raffle Ticket.
I’m going to side with the Gary Moore trained Hudson De Grugy, ridden by Josh Moore. Hudson De Grugy hasn’t finished out of the first two on his last five starts, winning on three of them. He was a wide margin winner at Sandown on his latest outing, when making it back to back victories at that venue on the 13th of March.
I think his chances will increase should rain continue to arrive. This French recruit has shown a cracking attitude since taking up residence at Gary Moore’s yard and I think if he is still in with a chance on the approach to the second last hurdle, he will not go down without a fight.
3.25 ‘National Hunt’ Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2) over 2m 4f 118y.
The lightly raced Kilmington Rose for the trainer, jockey combination of Paul Nicholls and Harry Cobden gets the nod. This lightly raced daughter of Presenting is only having her fourth start over hurdles, having finished second on her latest outing at Wincanton last December.
That second placed effort was a step up on anything she had previously shown over hurdles. Kilmington Rose sat in the first two throughout and I think ridden with a little more restraint and if capable of building on that Wincanton run, I think she can play a part in the finish. She is clearly held in some regard to have a crack at this Grade 2 contest on just her fifth career start.