Premier League Top Goalscorer Odds & Betting Favourites 2023/24
In this post, we take a look at the 2023 Premier League top goalscorer odds as we preview the favourites and give our prediction.
Can anyone dethrone the Norwegian goal-scoring freak, Erling Haaland? That’s the big question when we think about the top goalscorer award for this Premier League season. Even more so given the departure of Harry Kane to Germany.
The Manchester City striker took the Premier League by storm last season by hitting a record-breaking 36 Premier League goals. That beat totals set by Andy Cole and Alan Shearer in the mid-1990s when the division stretched across 42 games.
If Haaland claims the top-scorer prize again this season he will become the first Manchester City player to win multiple Golden Boots. There will be a gluttony of sharp-shooters who fancy their chances to outscore him this season and we take a look at their chances below.
Premier League Top Goalscorer Odds
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Premier League Top Goalscorer Odds |
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| Player | Odds | Chance |
| Erling Haaland | 4/11 | 73.3% |
| Mo Salah | 7/1 | 12.5% |
| Marcus Rashford | 20/1 | 4.8% |
| Alexander Isak | 20/1 | 4.8% |
| Darwin Nunez | 25/1 | 3.8% |
| Heung-Min Son | 25/1 | 3.8% |
| Richarlison | 33/1 | 2.9% |
| Ollie Watkins | 33/1 | 2.9% |
| Julian Alvarez | 33/1 | 2.9% |
| Bukayo Saka | 33/1 | 2.9% |
| Luis Diaz | 33/1 | 2.9% |
| Rasmus Hojlund | 33/1 | 2.9% |
| Gabriel Jesus | 40/1 | 2.4% |
| Callum Wilson | 40/1 | 2.4% |
| Evan Ferguson | 40/1 | 2.4% |
Premier League Top Goalscorer Betting Favourites
Erling Haaland (Manchester City) – 4/11
The Manchester City striker comes into this Premier League season as the reigning Gold Boot Champion and the worthy favourite to land the prize again following his 36 goals and 8 assists in 35 Premier League matches. This breaks down to 1.16 goals per 90 minutes from 2,777 minutes in total.
Erling Haaland is an elite finisher with a Non-Penalty XG of 0.80 Per 90 which is in the 99th percentile and with the likes of De Bruyne and Foden supplying him it’s no shock that his Shot Total of 3.86 Per 90 ranks in the 95th percentile. A sure-fire recipe for goals.
🍿🤖 Here is every single goal by Erling Haaland from his debut season in the Premier League. 36 goals and counting! pic.twitter.com/uFydkFNSeM
— EuroFoot (@eurofootcom) June 22, 2023
If Haaland remains fit, it’s a borderline certainty that he wins the Golden Boot. However, Haaland has traditionally struggled with injuries only missing 3 games last season, the two seasons before he missed 16 games and 10 the season before that.
His injury record worries me too much. Although he already has two goals in his first two games following a brace against Burnley in their first game of the season.
Verdict? Avoid
Mo Salah (Liverpool)- 7/1
The man affectionately known as “The Egyptian King” by Liverpool fans might be getting on a bit at 31 years of age but he is still very much one of the Premier League’s sharpest shooters. After a slow start to last season he finished the campaign with 19 goals and 12 assists in 38 matches.
While we can’t question his quality, there are a lot of unknowns with Salah; can he continue to change and adapt his game with age? Can he mount a challenge if misses matches through the African Cup of Nations? And finally, Is Darwin Nunez’s pre-season form evidence he is the new main man at Liverpool? Too many questions for me even if he already has one goal under his belt this season.
Verdict? Avoid.
Marcus Rashford (Manchester United) – 20/1
Marcus Rashford was Manchester United’s primary attacking outlet last season with 17 goals and 5 assists in his 35 Premier League matches last season. His importance to the team across competitions was so much so that they often struggled in front of goal if Rashford was unavailable or playing poorly.
Rashford, despite Manchester United’s CF woes last season, still plays predominantly on the left wing which was his primary position in 17/33 games. While Rashford is a mercurial talent and an in-form Rashford could arguably out-score anyone, I still feel he isn’t a worthy bet at this point.
Rasmus Højlund’s arrival may take from Rashford’s chances and with the likes of Garnacho, Fernandes and Mount around I can expect a more even distribution of the goals this season and a rotation of the forward positions. Furthermore, in the opening two games of the season, he has been awful.
Verdict? Avoid
Others Contenders
Alexander Isak has started the season on fire with two goals in two games and he is currently priced at 20/1. Elsewhere Liverpool hitman Darwin Nunez looks to finally be settling in at the club with four goals in pre-season he can be gotten at 25/1. While Son Heung Min for Tottenham in the absence of Harry Kane is 25/1.
My Tip
Evan Ferguson – 40/1
Okay… Hear me out! Evan Ferguson (18) is arguably Ireland’s most promising and biggest hope in an Irish Footballer in the last twenty years. I’m not expecting him to rival Haaland this season (not just yet anyway).
But the Irish teenage sensation starred for Brighton in the Premier League towards the end of last season where he scored 6 goals and provided 2 assists in 19 matches. Ferguson was eased into the team though and his goal-scoring record translates to 0.56 goals per 90. Expect him to be afforded a more prominent role up-front this season.
Evan Ferguson | My Type pic.twitter.com/okG9Yzrh3y
— h (@htomufc) March 10, 2023
If Ferguson gets regular game-time in the league especially with Brighton also having Europe to contend with. A goal-scoring hot streak isn’t beyond the realms of possibility and if other factors go his way he has certainly an each-way chance at 40/1.
Despite not starting the two opening games he already has one goal.
Click Below For All Our Premier League Top Goalscorer Odds
*Prices Subject To Fluctuation
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