Super Bowl Prediction, Preview & Odds – Chiefs v 49ers
In this post, I share my Super Bowl prediction as the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers go head-to-head in the biggest game of all.
I will take you through a breakdown of the betting odds, team news and matchups plus everything else you need to know to bet on the big game.
How To Watch The Super Bowl In Ireland & The UK
The Super Bowl starts at 11.30pm Irish and UK time (GMT). In Ireland the game is being broadcast on Virgin Media Two and in the UK the big game is being broadcast on ITV1. Coverage on both channels begins at 10.45 pm.
In Ireland you can stream the game on Virgin Media Player and in the UK the game can be streamed on ITVX.
The game is scheduled to kickoff at 11.30 pm Irish and UK time.
Super Bowl Odds
|Super Bowl Betting Odds – Chiefs v 49ers
|Kansas City Chiefs
|+1.5 @ 20/21
|Over 47.5 @ 10/11
|San Francisco 49ers
|-1.5 @ 20/23
|Under 47.5 @ 10/11
Match Betting Odds
The San Francisco 49ers are the favourites to win the Super Bowl at odds of 4/5 per the latest NFL odds at BoyleSports. Those odds imply that the 49ers have a 55.6% chance of winning this year’s Super Bowl.
The Kansas City Chiefs are the underdogs for this Super Bowl at odds of Evens.
Handicap Betting Odds
The handicap for this Super Bowl is -1.5 points. The 49ers are the -1.5-point favourites at odds of 20/23. In other words, San Francisco are 20/23 to win by 2+ points.
The Chiefs are +1.5-point underdogs for this game at odds of 20/21. That means that Kansas City need to either win the game or lose by 1 point for a bet on the Chiefs handicap to be a winner.
Teams News & Injury Reports
Kansas City Chiefs Team News
The Chiefs will be without All-Pro offensive lineman Joe Thuney for the Super Bowl after he suffered a pectoral injury in the playoffs against the Buffalo Bills. Thuney, who is one of the better offensive guards in the game and a trusted protector of QB Pat Mahomes, will be a big loss for Kansas City up against a supremely talented 49ers defensive line.
The Chiefs have already played the AFC Championship against the Baltimore Ravens without Thuney so they won’t have to start a new look offensive line for this game.
Andy Reid’s team had two other players on their injury report for the week. Running back Jerick McKinnon is questionable with a groin injury and offensive lineman Prince Tega Wanogho (quad) is out. McKinnon’s absence wouldn’t be a big blow for the Chiefs as he is the 3rd choice running back on their roster. Wangoho also wouldn’t be an important loss as he is a backup lineman.
San Francisco 49ers Team News
The 49ers reported a clean bill of health which is remarkable for this point in the season. Every player on their active roster is healthy and will be available to play in Sunday’s game.
Super Bowl Preview
The Kansas City Chiefs’ Path To The Super Bowl
The Kansas City Chiefs finished the regular season with a record of 11-6 (11 wins and 6 losses). That earned them the #3 seed in the AFC playoffs.
Wild Card: Chiefs beat #6 Dolphins 26-7
Divisional: Chiefs beat #2 Bills 27-24
AFC Championship: Chiefs beat #1 Ravens 17-10
The San Francisco 49ers’ Path To The Super Bowl
The San Francisco 49ers finished the regular season with a record of 12-5 (12 wins and 5 losses). That record gave them the #1 seed in the NFC Playoffs, ensuring they got a bye in the wild card round and were guaranteed home advantage in all their playoff games.
Wild Card: Bye courtesy of #1 seed
Divisional: 49ers beat Packers 24-21
NFC Championship: 49ers beat Lions 34-31
Super Bowl Weather Forecast
This game will be played in Allegiant Stadium which has a roof so weather will not be a factor in this game.
Kansas City Chiefs vs San Francisco 49ers Head-To-Head
The Chiefs and 49ers have played 8 times since 2000. The Chiefs have had the better of this match up in that time with a record of 5-3 against San Francisco.
Of more relevance to this matchup, the Patrick Mahomes-led Kansas City Chiefs have played San Francisco 3 times. The Chiefs record in those games is 3-0. That unbeaten record against Kyle Shanahan’s 49ers bodes well for Kansas City heading into this season’s Super Bowl.
Kansas City Chiefs Offence vs San Francisco 49ers Defence
The Chiefs have become a really balanced offence this year with much more willingness to run the ball than previous years when they were very pass heavy. It made sense before for this team to be a very pass happy offence considering they had the best quarterback in the NFL (maybe ever) and superstar passing options.
Now, the Chiefs still have the best QB in the world but they have lost the explosiveness of wide receiver Tyreek Hill after they traded him away to the Miami Dolphins. Their star tight end Travis Kelce (yes Taylor Swift’s boyfriend) is also getting older and not the dominant force that he once was.
The Chiefs run the ball pretty well too with a rank of 12th in yards per rush attempt. Running back Isiah Pacheco has been a revelation for the team this year with his angry running style. Expect to hear his name plenty this Sunday night.
San Francisco’s run defence has been terrible this postseason with an average of 158 rushing yards allowed to opponents in their last two games. They are averaging 5.6 yards per rush attempt to opposing teams in these playoffs, that mark would be by far the worst run defence in the NFL defence in the regular season. For reference, the worst run defence in the NFL this regular season allowed 5.0 yards per rush attempt.
Of course 2 games in the postseason is a small sample size but regardless this 49ers defence can be had on the ground and you can expect the Chiefs to target that in this game.
Travis Kelce will be the main outlet for Mahomes when the Chiefs pass the ball and we can also expect to see plenty of targets for rookie receiver Rashee Rice. San Francisco have one of the better pass defences in the NFL with just 5.9 yards allowed to opponents per pass attempt (5th best in the league).
You can still expect the Chiefs to have success through the air given that they have the best QB in the league and one of the best play callers in the NFL in the shape of Head Coach Andy Reid.
San Francisco 49ers Offence vs Kansas City Chiefs Defence
The 49ers under Kyle Shanahan have been best known for having one of the best running attacks in the league. They have combined this with a passing attack that is characterised by utilising quick short passes to get their playmakers the ball in space.
Second year quarterback Brock Purdy came from humble beginnings as the last pick in the 2022 draft, also known as Mr Irrelevant. Purdy won’t be the best quarterback on the field on Sunday evening but he has shown a willingness to throw the ball deep down the field for this team, something that this offence was lacking under previous starting quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo.
The Chiefs have one of the best passing defences in the league. They allow the 2nd least yards per pass attempt to opponents. The biggest worry from the 49ers point of view would be Purdy’s propensity to throw the ball to opposing defenders. He is usually good for a couple of interceptable passes a game and if he does that in this game then it could put the 49ers in a bad situation.
Due to the talent of the Chiefs secondary players I think we will see San Francisco opt for even more short passes than usual and plenty of passes to dynamic running back Christian McCaffrey in the flats to create offence.
Kansas City Chiefs vs San Francisco 49ers Betting Trends
San Francisco have underwhelmed relative to expectation in recent games as they are 0-2 against the handicap in this postseason and 1-4 ATH in their last 5 games.
With the Chiefs it is the opposite story as they have been underdogs against the Bills (+2.5) and the Ravens (+4.5) in their last two playoff games.
The Patrick Mahomes-led Kansas City Chiefs have appeared in the Super Bowl 3 times. Interestingly, they were narrow underdogs in 2 of those Super Bowls and ended up winning both of those games, the 1st against the 49ers in 2020 and the 2nd against the Eagles last year.
The one Super Bowl that this team has been a favourite in was in 2021 against the Buccaneers (-3) and they ended up losing that game by 22 points. They are narrow underdogs going into this Super Bowl against the 49ers which could be a good omen for them.
Kansas City Chiefs vs San Francisco 49ers Prediction & Best Bet
Prediction: Kansas City Chiefs 22-24 San Francisco 49ers
Super Bowl MVP: Deebo Samuel @ 20/1
I am predicting that the San Francisco 49ers will beat the Kansas City Chiefs by 2 points and win Super Bowl LVIII. It would be the first Super Bowl for the 49ers since 1995.
Could I end up looking stupid picking against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs? Yes, that is absolutely a possibility. However, this 49ers roster top to bottom is far more talented than Kansas City’s roster.
The massive advantage that the Chiefs have at the quarterback position is a concern but 49ers Head Coach Kyle Shanahan is the best play caller in the game and he can put his quarterback and offence in a position to succeed given the immense talent they have on that side of the ball.
In terms of how this game will play out, I expect a cagey start for both teams which has become typical of recent Super Bowls given the occasion and pressure on both teams. I think this will lead to a low scoring first half before we see these teams begin to have more offensive success in the second half.
Best Bet: 1st Half Total Points Under 23.5 @ 20/23
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