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UFC 295 Odds: Procházka vs. Pereira Fight Card & Picks

Check out our UFC 295 odds ahead of  Procházka vs Pereira as we preview the fight card and give our picks for this Saturday night’s action.

How To Watch UFC 295

Start Time: The early prelims start at 11 pm GMT, the prelims start at 1 am and the main card begins at 3 am.

What TV Channel? TNT Sports 1, Marin Card coverage begins at 3.00 am Saturday night/Sunday morning.

Location: Madison Square Garden, New York, the United States of America.

UFC 295 Fight Card

Main Card

Main Event Light Heavyweight: Jiří Procházka vs Alex Pereira

Heavyweight: Sergei Pavlovich vs Tom Aspinall

Women’s Strawweight: Mackenzie Dern vs Jéssica Andrade

Lightweight: Matt Frevola vs Benoît Saint-Denis 

Featherweight: Diego Lopes vs Pat Sabatini

Preliminary Card

Flyweight: Steve Erceg vs Alessandro Costa

Women’s Strawweight: Tabatha Ricci vs Loopy Godinez

Lightweight: Mateusz Rębecki vs Roosevelt Roberts

Lightweight: Nazim Sadykhov vs Viacheslav Borshchev 

Early Preliminary Card

Lightweight: Jared Gordon vs Mark Madsen

Bantamweight: John Castañeda vs Kang Kyung-ho

Flyweight: Joshua Van vs Kevin Borjas

Featherweight: Dennis Buzukja vs Jamall Emmers

UFC 295 Preview & Predictions

Jiří Procházka vs Alex Pereira

Fighter Records

Jiří Procházka 29-3-1 | Alex Pereira 8-2-0

Tale of the Tape

Jiří Procházka Tale Of The Tape Alex Pereira
31 Age 36
1.91m Height 1.93m
93kg Weight 93kg
203.2cm Reach 200.7cm


Jiří Procházka

Jiří is only three fights into his UFC run but exploded to life in his first-ever UFC bout back at UFC 251 where he defeated Volkan Oezdemir (a former UFC Light Heavyweight Title Challenger) via knockout in the second round. For his performance, he was awarded a Performance of the Night bonus award.

Procházka then faced two-time UFC Light Heavyweight Championship title challenger Dominick Reyes in May 2021. He eventually won a back-and-forth fight via knockout in the second round. The Czech native once again won Performance of the Night and Fight of the Night bonus awards.

That streak of success has earned him a UFC Light Heavyweight opportunity at UFC 275 where he defeated Glover Teixeira via Submission (rear-naked choke) in Round 5. Yet again he won the Fight of the Night. However, he later vacated the title due to a right shoulder injury.

Alex Pereira

Pereira has been a member of the promotion since UFC 268 where he won his debut bout in superb fashion defeating Andreas Michailidis via TKO (flying knee and punches) 18 seconds into Round 2. That performance earned him Performance of the Night.

Following that, victories over Bruno Silva and Sean Strickland earned him a shot at the UFC Middleweight Championship back at UFC 281 which he won against Israel Adesanya via TKO Punches 2.01 into Round 5 and earned Performance of the Night. However, he lost the rematch via KO Punches in Round 2 at UFC 287.

Pereira then switched to Light Heavyweight where he won his debut at UFC 291 against Jan Błachowicz via Split Decision.

Fighting styles

Procházka: Muay Thai | Pereira: Kickboxing

Fight Analysis

This looks like a very balanced fight on paper with both fighters coming into the event on the back of victories in their most recent bouts which has put them into the position where they’re now fighting for the UFC Light Heavyweight title vacated by Jamahal Hill due to injury.

Procházka is known for his aggressive and wild style which has seen him record 25/29 of his victories via knockout. He is known as an extremely entertaining fighter.

However, the downside to Procházka’s aggressive and wild style is that he leaves himself open for hits from his opponent and lacks defence. He absorbs 5.40 significant strikes per minute compared with his opponents’ 3.7. This puts him in danger as Pereira is known as one of the most dangerous, technical and damaging strikers in the division. Thus, it’s no surprise that from ten fights and eight victories, six have come by knockout and two by decision.

Another interesting thing to note is that Procházka is the yohttps://www.boylesports.com/sports/ufc-mma/competition#fightsufc295prochzkavspereira?btag=46740unger of the two fighters by five years. He has substantially more fights fought professionally (33) compared to Pereria who has only fought ten times. So the usual argument of youth and experience when it comes to durability and octagon experience can’t necessarily be taken.

I favour Procházka in this one as he has never been knocked out in any of his fights compared to his opponent who has once but has been rocked in several fights. Procházka’s knockout power should give him the victory against the more technical Pereira.

Prediction: Jiří Procházka To Win @ EVS

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Sergei Pavlovich vs Tom Aspinall

Fighter Records

Sergei Pavlovich: 18-1-0 | Tom Aspinall: 13-3-0


Sergei Pavlovich

Sergei Pavlovich opened his UFC Career in a losing effort against Alistair Overeem at a UFC Fight Night event in November 2018.

Since then he has won seven bouts in a row, four times via TKO, via KO twice and earned Performance of the Night four times. The most recent of those came in a TKO victory over Curtis Blaydes last April.

Tom Aspinall

Tom Aspinall is another consistent performer. He has won six of his seven UFC bouts since debuting for the promotion at UFC Fight Night back in October 2020.

Four of six victories have come via TKO (either elbow and punches or knee and punches). Aspinall has also been a prolific Performance of the Night winner, doing it five times. The most recent of those Performance of the Night victories came in his last victory over Marcin Tybura back in July where won inside Round 1 by TKO (elbow and punches).

Fighting styles

Pavlovich: Striker | Aspinall: Striker

Fight Analysis

Interestingly, while Pavlovich is the smaller fighter at 1.91m tall compared to Aspinall who is 1.96m tall, he has a substantially longer reach at 213.4cm compared to Aspinall’s 198.1cm. That should give him a big advantage in this fight.

Pavlovich, such is his knockout power, has not fought past Round 1 since 2017 so he might have to win this fight early to stand his best chance of success.

Similar can be said for Aspinall although he was victorious in the second-round by rear-naked choke against Andrei Arlovski in 2021. This could be a quick fight.

Prediction: Tom Aspinall To Win In Under 3.5 Rounds @ EVS

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Mackenzie Dern vs Jéssica Andrade

Fighter Records

Mackenzie Dern: 13-3-0 | Jessica Andrade: 24-12-0


Mackenzie Dern

Mackenzie Dern, 30, has been fighting in the promotion since UFC 222 back in March 2018. Since then she has won eight of her eleven bouts including three Performance of the Night awards and Fight of the Night once. The latter came in her most recent victory over Angela Hill by unanimous decision back in May.

Jessica Andrade

Jessica Andrade is a veteran of the promotion despite fighting first for them nearly a decade ago in a losing effort against Liz Carmouche.

She is still a relatively young fighter at 32. Andrade has competed against the very best in the sport but has lost her last three fights as her status begins to decline.

Fighting styles

Dern: Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu | Andrade: Striker

Fight Analysis

Makenzie Dern is in the ascendancy of her career at 30 and Andrade seems to be in decline despite only being two years older.

The form guide suggests this is Dern’s to win and while she hasn’t won by KO or TKO yet in her career, I think it could come here utilising her 160cm reach which is 2.5cm longer than Andrade.

Prediction: Mackenzie Dern By Decision or TKO @ 4/1

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