New Zealand v South Africa Prediction post blog header image – 2023 Rugby World Cup Final

New Zealand v South Africa Prediction, Preview & Odds – 2023 RWC Final

We have a New Zealand v South Africa prediction for you plus a breakdown of the odds, team news and matchups ahead of the 2023 Rugby World Cup Final.

How To Watch New Zealand v South Africa

When is New Zealand v South Africa

The 2023 Rugby World Cup Final between New Zealand and South Africa will kick off at 8.00 pm on Saturday, October 28th.

TV Channel

In Ireland the 2023 Rugby World Cup Final will be broadcast on both Virgin Media, with coverage beginning at 6.30 pm, and RTÉ 2, with buildup from 7 pm.

In the United Kingdom television viewers can watch the big game on ITV1 with pre-match coverage starting at 7pm.

Live Stream

If you are in Ireland you can live stream the big game between New Zealand and South Africa on Virgin Media Player and RTÉ Player.

In the United Kingdom, the Rugby World Cup Final can be streamed on ITVX.

Where is New Zealand v South Africa Being Played?

The 2023 Rugby World Cup Final will be played in the Stade de France in Saint-Denis, France.

Saint-Denis is about an hour’s car journey north of Paris and the Stade de France has been the sight of all the knockout games at this tournament bar two Quarter-Finals.

New Zealand v South Africa Odds

New Zealand v South Africa Betting Odds – Rugby World Cup Final
Team Odds Chance
New Zealand 4/5 55.6%
South Africa 6/5 45.5%
Draw 18/1 5.3%

New Zealand are marginal 4/5 favourites ahead of the 2023 Rugby World Cup Final.

South Africa are the underdogs at 6/5 to win this game in 80 minutes and in the process defend their 2019 title.

If you fancy the game to go to extra-time the draw after 80 minutes is 18/1. These two teams previously needed extra time to separate them in the 1995 Rugby World Cup Final.

To Lift The Cup Odds

New Zealand: 3/4

South Africa: 11/10

Handicap Betting

New Zealand: -2 @ Evens

South Africa +2 @ Evens

Handicap Draw: -2 @ 18/1

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New Zealand v South Africa Betting Odds - 2023 Rugby World Cup Final (2)

Team News

New Zealand Team News

New Zealand Head Coach Ian Foster has made two changes to his squad that played in the Semi-Final ahead of this Saturday’s Final.

Brodie Retallick will return to the starting lineup at lock as he replaces Samuel Whitelock who drops to the bench. Whitelock should still have a big part to play in this Final but the thinking for the All Blacks is likely that at 35 he is better used coming off the bench to counter South Africa’s ‘Bomb Squad’.

The only other change in the 23-man squad is in the replacements where Nepo Laulala comes into the squad in place of Fletcher Newell. Laulala will be an option off the bench at prop and is another man who will likely be called upon in the second half to square off against the vaunted Springboks ‘Bomb Squad’.

It’s also worth noting that the All Blacks have opted for a traditional 5/3 forward/back split among their replacements. They have not tried to match the Springboks with extra forwards on the bench which is an interesting call and should generate much discussion both in the leadup to and after the game.

New Zealand Starting Lineup

  1. Ethan De Groot
  2. Codie Taylor
  3. Tyrel Lomax
  4. Brodie Retallick
  5. Scott Barrett
  6. Shannon Frizell
  7. Sam Cane (C)
  8. Ardie Savea
  9. Aaron Smith
  10. Richie Mo’Unga
  11. Mark Telea
  12. Jordie Barrett
  13. Rieko Ioane
  14. Will Jordan
  15. Beauden Barrett


16. Samisoni Taukei’aho

17. Tamaiti Williams

18. Nepo Laulala

19. Sam Whitelock

20. Dalton Papali’i

21. Finlay Christie

22. Damian McKenzie

23. Anton Lienert-Brown

South Africa Team News

There were some big calls for Rassie Erasmus and Jacques Nienaber to make in terms of squad selection for this Rugby World Cup Final.

Now we know how the Springboks will line up this Saturday.

South Africa are going for a 7/1 split among their replacements. The ‘Bomb Squad’ as they like to call it which had a massive impact in their 35-7 win against the All Blacks this summer.

The big news is that Handre Pollard will start at fly-half in place of Manie Libbok. This isn’t a surprise considering that Libbok was taken off at half-time in the Semi-Final against England.

What is surprising however is that Libbok has been completely dropped from the 23 which means those 30 minutes against England will be the end of his involvement in this year’s tournament.

The knock against Libbok has always been his suspect goal-kicking. Pollard doesn’t give the team game-breaking ability from fly-half like Libbok but he is ice cold from the kicking tee. He proved that against England with his game-winning kick.

The Springboks have also made a change at scrum-half with Faf de Klerk starting ahead of Cobus Reinach who started the Semi-Final against England. While the changes in fly-half and scrum-half selection both make sense in isolation, it could count against South Africa that they will be playing a half-back partnership with very limited experience playing with each other in this tournament. With that said, they have plenty of experience together prior to this tournament.

Hooker Bongi Mbonambi will also start in this World Cup Final. This is worth noting as he had been the subject of an investigation after an alleged racist comment to England’s Tom Curry in the Semi-Final.

South Africa Starting Lineup

  1. Steven Kitshoff
  2. Mbongeni Mbonambi
  3. Frans Malherbe
  4. Eben Etzebeth
  5. Franco Mostert
  6. Siya Kolisi (C)
  7. Pieter-Steph Du Toit
  8. Duane Vermeulen
  9. Faf de Klerk
  10. Handre Pollard
  11. Cheslin Kolbe
  12. Damian de Allende
  13. Jesse Kriel
  14. Kurt-Lee Arendse
  15. Damian Willemse


16. Deon Fourie

17. Ox Nche

18. Trevor Nyakane

19. Jean Kleyn

20. RG Snyman

21. Kwagga Smith

22. Jasper Wiese

23. Willie Le Roux

Officiating team

Referee: Wayne Barnes

Assistant Referee 1: Karl Dickson

Assistant Referee 2: Matthew Carley

TMO: Tom Foley

New Zealand v South Africa Weather Forecast

Conditions for the Rugby World Cup Final are expected to be calm so the weather should not be a factor in the performance of either side based on the most recent forecasts.


The temperature is predicted to be 14°C at kick-off.


Winds are expected to be minimal and in the region of 8mph.


There is expected to be 0.4mm of rain during the game.

New Zealand v South Africa Preview

New Zealand’s Path To The 2023 Rugby World Cup Final

New Zealand’s World Cup credentials have been criticised since their opening night defeat against France and their ropey performances heading into the tournament. As a result, they entered their Quarter-Final against Ireland as slight underdogs.

The All Blacks answered those doubts with a massive performance to beat the Irish which made them Rugby World Cup favourites.

Here’s a recap of how New Zealand reached the World Cup Final.

Pool A

The opening game of Pool A, and the entire tournament, saw New Zealand take on tournament hosts France. This was a highly anticipated matchup and billed as a potential preview of the Rugby World Cup Final.

As it turned out, France would prevail 27-13 but the All Blacks would have the last laugh as the French were knocked out in the Quarter-Finals against South Africa.

As if they were embarrassed by that opening night loss to France, New Zealand inflicted heavy defeats on their opposition in their three remaining Pool A matches.

First up was Namibia who fell to a 71-3 loss. Many pundits expected Italy to keep the score close but they had no answers as New Zealand ran rampant on their way to a 96-17 victory. The last pool game for New Zealand came against Uruguay who also had no answers as they were swept aside 73-0. That set up a Quarter-Final tie with Ireland.

Those heavy victories didn’t tell us too much about New Zealand given the quality of opposition they faced in those games. In fact, Ireland were favoured going into the game owing to their impressive form.


The All Blacks answered their critics with an immense performance against Ireland. Despite being down to 14 men for 20 minutes of the game they held on to secure a 28-24 win.


The Semi-Final proved to be their easiest game since the Pool Stage, with them overcoming Argentina on a 6-44 scoreline to book their place in the final.

New Zealand Rugby World Cup Results

France 27-13 New Zealand | Pool A, Friday, September 8th.

New Zealand 71-3 Namibia | Pool A, Friday, September 15th.

New Zealand 96-17 Italy | Pool A, Friday, September 29th.

New Zealand 73-0 Uruguay | Pool A, Thursday, October 5th.

Ireland 24-28 New Zealand | Quarter-Final, Saturday, October 14th.

Argentina 6-44 New Zealand | Semi-Final, Friday, October 20th. 

South Africa’s Path To The 2023 Rugby World Cup Final

South Africa’s pool defeat against Ireland meant they had to settle the title “Pool B runner-up” which meant they had a Quarter-Final tie against France to look forward to. The Springboks overcame the French in a 28-29 thriller to make the Semi-Final against England where it was a similar story. South Africa again won out by one point this time 15-16 to put themselves into the Rugby World Cup Final.

Pool B

The Springboks opened up their 2019 World Cup defence with an 18-3 victory against Scotland. Most impressively, despite leading just 6-3 at half-time, ruthless South Africa left them scoreless in the second half to win the game comfortably.

South Africa ran out easy 76-0 winners against Romania but what followed was their Pool Game against Ireland where some questionable decision-making and kicking meant Ireland took control of the Pool with an 8-13 victory.

They weren’t troubled in their final Pool Game beating Tonga 49-18 to secure their Quarter-Final place against tournament hosts France.


The game promised so much on paper and what followed was arguably the game of the tournament with heroics from Cheslin Kolbe blocking down a penalty the difference as they won out 28-29.


The Semi-Final proved to be another thriller despite their status as heavy favourites against England they needed a late 78th-minute penalty to earn themselves a hard-fought 15-16 win and a place in the final.

South Africa Rugby World Cup Results

South Africa 18-3 Scotland | Pool B, Sunday, September 10th.

South Africa 76-0 Romania | Pool B, Sunday, September 17th.

South Africa 8-13 Ireland | Pool B, Saturday, September 23rd.

South Africa 49-18 Tonga | Pool B, Sunday, October 1st.

France 28-29 South Africa | Quarter-Final, Sunday, October 15th.

England 15-16 South Africa | Semi-Final, Saturday, October 21st.

New Zealand v South Africa Rugby Head-To-Head

All-Time Head-To-Head Record

New Zealand and South Africa have been battling in Test rugby since 1921 when the All Blacks beat the Springboks in Dunedin 13–5 commencing arguably the biggest rivalry in the history of the sport.

Up until 1996, New Zealand had never won a series in South Africa but South Africa had won a series in New Zealand in 1937.

The All Blacks and Springboks have played each other 105 times, with the All Blacks leading the series 62 to 39, with 4 matches drawn.

Head-To-Head Results Last Five Matches

2023: South Africa won 35-7

2023: New Zealand won 35-20

2022: South Africa won 26-10

2021: South Africa won 29-31

2021: New Zealand won 19-17


South Africa have won three of the last five games between the sides.

Key Players To Watch

Will Jordan – New Zealand

Howlett, Savea, Lomu and many, many more are the greatest New Zealand try-scorers ever, but Speedster Will Jordan (25) is quickly putting himself in similar conversations amongst the rugby faithful since making his debut for the Kiwis in 2020.

Jordan has been at his typical brilliant best all tournament and he looks a nailed-on cert to finish the tournament as Top Tryscorer following his eight tries.

Cheslin Kolbe – South Africa

The Toulon Winger was brilliant in their victory against the French in the Rugby World Cup Quarter-Final including blocking down a conversion attempt and scoring his first tournament try. When things looked toughest for the Springboks he always seemed to come alive during the big moments.

While he didn’t score in their Semi-Final victory against England, you can expect another big performance from him against New Zealand next weekend.

New Zealand v South Africa Prediction & Best Bet

Prediction: New Zealand 25-10 South Africa

Plenty were criticising the All Blacks coming into the tournament following their ropey form, which only compounded further following their opening night defeat against France. However, following their brilliant Quarter-Final victory against Ireland and easy win against Argentina they now find themselves in the final.

The Springboks overcame an early Pool defeat against Ireland to make their second successive World Cup Final after a brilliant victory over France and another hard-fought victory over England.

This promises to be an extremely fascinating encounter and like plenty of other games throughout the tournament it could come down to the kick or a bounce of a ball. Something tells me The All Blacks win this one though.

Best Bet: New Zealand -9 @ 11/4

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