US Open 2022 Betting Preview, Tips & Odds | Golf Tipster Steve Palmer
Racing Post tipster Steve Palmer has joined BoyleSports on golf tipping show The Sweet Spot to pick out his fancies for the third major of the year as the US Open takes centre stage.
Venue
The Country Club at Brookline is a 7,264 yard par 70 with only two par 5s which last hosted the US Open in 1988.
It hosted the 2013 US amateur won by Matt Fitzpatrick, so he is the only course winner in the field.
It’s most famous for hosting the 1999 Ryder Cup and it’s a parkland course with a links feel. At only 7 miles from the Atlantic Ocean, it’s usually quite windswept.
There is lots of fescue rough, so the key attribute is accurate approach play; you have to be on point with your irons and wedges.
Thursday morning looks like it will offer the best scoring conditions, so an early/late draw over the first two days is what you’re looking for. Although at Sawgrass this year the weather changed and the draw bias flipped, while Justin Thomas overcame the worst side of the draw to win the USPGA.
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Headline Tip
Xander Schauffele (18/1) is the best value each-way bet in the field for me.
He’s never failed to place in the US Open, his form figures are 5, 6, 3, 5, 7 in his five US Open starts.
It’s a challenge he loves and he says the tougher the conditions, the more chance of success he has. He’s the ultimate grinder with no obvious weakness, a great all-rounder.
He’s positive in all the stats this season too – 12th in strokes gained approach which is the key attribute this week for me.
He played well in the 2013 US amateur and I liked his build up to this event.
He won the Zurich Classic pairs event with Patrick Cantlay and at the AT&T Byron Nelson he was staring at a missed cut before going -8 for his final 13 holes of round 2, then he hit 65, 61 on the weekend to finish 5th.
That was the evidence his A-game was back. He was then 13th at the USPGA, 18th at The Memorial and he’s had a week off to freshen up.
Next Best
Everyone’s favourite Irishman Shane Lowry (22/1) has become relentlessly consistent, he’s in the form of his life and in control of every department of his game. He’s 9th in that key stat of strokes gained approach and he’s hardly put a foot wrong.
In 11 strokeplay starts this year he’s had nothing worse than 32nd. He was 10th last week at the Canadian Open with an ice-cold putter and I think he’ll fall in love with Brookline.
There is wind forecast, there are small greens and plenty of scrambling will be needed. He’s one of the best scramblers in the field and a proven major champion – he’s playing too well to be ignored.
Others
I think Joaquin Niemann (28/1) is ready to win majors. I like the way he’s been handling himself in elite company.
He won the Genesis Invitational from the front in February, he was drawn with Tiger Woods in the first round of The Masters and he hit 69 and I thought…this fella has really come of age.
He’s been really solid since then – 23rd in the USPGA and 3rd in The Memorial last time out.
He’s only 23, he was destined for greatness as the world number 1 amateur and I think it’s about to happen. He’s made the cut in the last seven majors and he’s on the right side of the draw.
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Tommy Fleetwood (40/1) is clearly getting his act together again. His short game has actually never been in better nick and the long game is coming back.
I can see him putting it all together at Brookline. He has shown he can handle the US Open assignment: 4th in 2017 and runner-up in 2018.
His 14th place at The Masters was his best finish at Augusta and he outscored everybody on the weekend at the USPGA to finish 5th. Brookline looks a great fit if he can overcome the wrong side of the draw.
Outsiders
There are two relatively unknown Americans who I think can make a big impact and the first is Taylor Montgomery (250/1).
He’s been really impressive on the Korn Ferry Tour and is guaranteed promotion to the PGA Tour after he finished 8th last time out to secure his card.
His last five finishes on the Korn Ferry Tour read 4, 13, 4, 2, 8.
He made his US Open debut last year and finished 57th, he qualified this year at the Olympic Club, a US Open venue.
In a rare PGA Tour start in January at Torrey Pines, another US Open venue, he finished 11th. I think he’s going places.
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Like Montgomery, Brandon Matthews (500/1) is riding the crest of a wave after securing his PGA Tour card on Sunday with a final hole birdie.
He got his first Korn Ferry win in February, he’s also won three times on the South American Tour.
He’s got course experience as quarter finalist in the 2013 US Amateur and his secret weapon is enormous firepower – he’s one of the longest hitters in the field and there are three driveable par 4s at Brookline. He made two eagles on Sunday in the Korn Ferry Tour event and he’s worth a gamble at the prices.
Watch the full show here:
Tips: (11 places each-way)
18/1 Xander Schauffele
22/1 Shane Lowry
28/1 Joaquin Niemann
40/1 Tommy Fleetwood
250/1 Taylor Montgomery
500/1 Brandon Matthews
*Prices correct at time of publication
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