Leinster v Toulouse Prediction, Preview & Odds – Rugby Champions Cup

on April 27, 2023 at 2:33 pm

We have a Leinster v Toulouse prediction and preview plus odds ahead for the European Rugby Champions Cup Semi-Final at the Aviva Stadium.

Leinster v Toulouse Match Info

When? 3pm, Saturday, April 29th

Venue: Aviva Stadium, Dublin

What Channel? RTÉ 2, ITV 1, BT Sport 3

Leinster v Toulouse Odds

Leinster are 2/7 to win this match, Toulouse can be gotten at 11/4 while the draw is 28/1. The handicap is Leinster -8 at 10/11.

The Form – Leinster v Toulouse

Leinster Form

Favourites to win this competition and it’s easy to see why. Leinster lead the United Rugby Championship with 18 matches played they have a record of 16 wins 1 draw and 1 defeat with their first and only defeat coming in a 62-7 scoreline away to The Bulls last weekend albeit a severely rotated side.

In the European Champions Cup, they can’t be touched either this season winning four out of four of their pool-stage games with a points differential of +150. They then beat Ulster 30-15 in the Round of 16 and Leicester 55-24 in the Quarter-Final and enter this Semi-Final as favourites.

Leinster lost in the final last season to La Rochelle and are without a victory in the competition since their success in 2017-18 over Racing 15-12. This season could be their time again.

Toulouse Form

In the Top-14 this season they are currently first with 15 wins and 1 draw and 7 defeats in their opening 23 matches.

The 2020/21 Champions have been in good form this season in the pool stages, they won four out of four with a points differential of +57. They dispatched of South African side Bulls 33-9 in the Round of 16 and won 54-20 over Sharks in the Quarter-Final.

This Saturday’s game against Leinster will be their biggest test of the season but if they can get past them expect them to be favourites for the final.

Leinster v Toulouse Preview

Leinster Attack

Leinster has arguably the most potent attack in World Rugby with the most points scored in every competition they have played in this season. In the United Rugby Championship, they have scored 580 points this season which is 32.22 points per match.

In this competition, they have scored 269 points a staggering average of 44.83 points per match. Jordan Larmour looks set to start ahead of the injured James Lowe on Saturday following a “freakish” injury picked up by Lowe during their win over Leicester.

Leinster will also be without their main man Johnny Sexton who is out for the season with a groin injury last month it is likely Ross Byrne will be starting fly-half on Saturday.

Toulouse Defence

Toulouse has cut a strong defence this season in the Top-14 they have the second-best defence conceding 421 points (only two less than La Rochelle) an average of 18.3 points per match. In this competition, their record is even better conceding 82 points across their six matches an average of 13.66 points per match.

Furthermore, they have scrum half Antoine Dupont who consistently shows himself to be excellent defensively with freakish strength for his size. This Leinster attack could prove a different animal altogether to contain on Saturday though.

Toulouse Attack

Toulouse have also a strong attack in the Top-14 they rank second for points scored with 576 (29 less than La Rochelle) an average of 25.04 per match. In this competition, their record is even better scoring 197 points across their six matches an average of 32.83 points per match.

Their man to watch in attack is Full-Back and Six Nations 2023 Top-Scorer Thomas Ramos who is a threat from the boot while also being a try threat. Only Joe Simmons (95) has more than his 85 points in this competition.

Leinster Defence

Leinster are not only potent in attack but solid defensively. In the United Rugby Championship, they have conceded 363 points an average of 20.16 a game. This statistic is skewed though with their 62-7 loss to The Blues with a heavily rotated team if you discount that match they only concede 17.70 points per match.

In this competition, they have conceded only 73 points an average of just 12.16 points per match. It is unclear whether van der Flier or Ryan Baird will be fit to play with them coming back from ankle and shoulder injuries respectively, with a decision on their squad inclusion expected at the end of the week.

Cullen confirmed on Monday that Ed Byrne would not be available after he injured his triceps against the Bulls. Rhys Ruddock will also be unavailable after suffering a hamstring injury earlier this month, and he underwent a procedure last weekend.