US Open Tips, Preview, Odds, Favourites & Course Guide
In this post you can find US Open tips along with a preview of the odds, the favourites and a look at this year’s host course.
The US Open – Golf’s Toughest Test
The US Open is one of golf’s four majors and since the USPGA’s move to May has become the third major each year in the golfing calendar.
The tournament is often referred to as golf’s toughest test. It is known for it’s long rough and rock hard greens which contribute to this being the only major championship in golf where the winning score is regularly over par.
The 2023 US Open will be the 123rd edition of the tournament which was first played in 1895 at Newport Country Club.
Where Is The US Open 2023?
The 2023 US Open tournament will be played at Los Angeles Country Club’s North Course.
When Is The US Open 2023?
The 2023 US Open begins on Thursday, June 15th at 2.45pm GMT (UK/Irish time) which is 9.45am local time. The tournament will be played over four days and conclude on Sunday for the US Open’s traditional Father’s Day finish.
How To Watch The US Open 2023?
The US Open will be broadcast on Sky Sports Golf and Sky Sports Main Event. TV coverage of the first round gets underway from 3pm and runs all the way through to 4am the next morning.
Final round coverage begins on Sky Sports Golf at 5.30pm, Sunday, June 18th and runs through to 3am the next morning.
US Open Preview
Profile of US Open Winners
Good Driver Of The Golf Ball
The prevailing wisdom for a long time has been that the most important ingredient to US Open success is a good driving performance. In particular there has been this idea that you need to be an accurate driver of the golf ball to succeed at this tournament due to the long and penal rough if you stray from the fairway.
The reality is that driving distance is much more important in US Open setups as all players will miss fairways so it pays to be 20 yards closer to the green when you do end up in the rough. Of course, ‘long and straight’ is ideal but long is a prerequisite.
If we look at the last five winners of the US Open and where they ranked on the PGA Tour in strokes gained off-the-tee (the best indicator of driving performance) that year we notice a trend. Each of them has been in the top 20 in strokes gained off-the-tee on the PGA Tour in the year that they won while four of the five were in the top 10.
Strokes Gained Off-the-tee ranking of US Open Champions
2022 | Matt Fitzpatrick – 10th
2021 | Jon Rahm – 2nd
2020 | Bryson DeChambeau – 1st
2019 | Gary Woodland – 19th
2018 | Brooks Koepka – 9th
Among The Best In Approach Play or Scrambling
If you look further into the profile of recent US Open winners you will notice another trend appears. Each of the last five US Open champions have been elite on the PGA Tour in one of these three stats; Strokes Gained off-the-tee, Strokes Gained approach-the-green, Strokes Gained around the green. While three of the last five winners have been elite (top 20) in at least two of those three statistical categories.
Bryson is the big outlier as he was average in both strokes gained approach and strokes gained around the green yet still won. We can put that down to him being 1st in the strokes gained off the tee stat by some distance. In other words he lapped the field in terms of driving performance.
Below you can see the strokes gained ranks on the PGA Tour for each US Open winner of the last five years:
Strokes Gained: Approach The Green
2022 | Matt Fitzpatrick – 48th
2021 | Jon Rahm – 8th
2020 | Bryson DeChambeau – 119th
2019 | Gary Woodland – 20th
2018 | Brooks Koepka – 65th
Strokes Gained: Around The Green
2022 | Matt Fitzpatrick – 7th
2021 | Jon Rahm – 42nd
2020 | Bryson DeChambeau – 111th
2019 | Gary Woodland – 107th
2018 | Brooks Koepka – 56th
US Open Odds 2023
Scottie Scheffler – US Open Favourite @ 13/2
Jon Rahm – 11/1
Brooks Koepka – 12/1
Rory McIlroy – 13/1
Patrick Cantlay – 18/1
Viktor Hovland – 18/1
Xander Schauffele – 20/1
Jordan Spieth – 25/1
Tyrrell Hatton – 30/1
Max Homa – 30/1
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US Open Tips 2023
My top tip for this year’s US Open is Tyrell Hatton at 30/1. The English man fits the profile of a US Open winner and represents value at those odds.
Hatton is an excellent driver of the golf ball and proof of this is his ranking of 11th on the PGA Tour for strokes gained off-the-tee.
The 31-year-old is also among the best in the world in his approach play where he ranks 17th in strokes gained approach on the PGA Tour. When he does miss the green he is able to recover as a competent scrambler (57th ranked in strokes gained around the green) who can keep bogies on his scorecard to a minimum.
In terms of previous performances at the US Open he has shown that he can feature towards the top of the leaderboard with a T6 finish in 2018. Hatton’s next best finish was T21 in 2019.
Both Matt Fitzpatrick and Jon Rahm, the last two US Open winners, had only recorded one top ten between them in this event before they went on to win it so I wouldn’t be too worried about Hatton not finishing among the top 10 more in his previous appearances at this tournament.
Another factor in Hatton’s favour is that four of the last six winners of the US Open have gone into the tournament with odds between 21/1 and 30/1. Of the contingent of golfers in that odds range this year Hatton profiles the best to go on and win the tournament.
My second tip for this year’s US Open is Viktor Hovland at odds of 18/1. This man is primed to win a major and it’s beginning to look like a case of when he wins one and not if.
Hovland has now registered three consecutive top 10s at major championships. He finished T4th at last year’s Open Championship, T7th at this year’s Masters before a runner-up finish at the PGA Championship last month.
The Norwegian finished as the leading amateur in 2019 which is worth noting considering that the previous two champions, Matt Fitzpatrick and Jon Rahm, also won the leading amateur medal at this tournament before later going on to win the US Open outright.
Hovland also ranks in the top 10 for both strokes gained off-the-tee and strokes gained approach so he definitely has the game to win a US Open. My only concern is that his scrambling is pretty average but his ball striking is so good that it mightn’t even matter.
If you want a longer odds each-way punt then I think Corey Conners could be an interesting bet. You can back him at odds of 80/1 with each-way terms of 1/5 of the odds for the first 8 places.
The Canadian is a great driver of the golf ball with a ranking of 18th in strokes gained off-the-tee on the PGA Tour. Conners has also been elite in his approach play this season where he ranks 22nd on the tour. His biggest area of weakness is his scrambling around the green where he comes in at 124th on the PGA tour but we have seen in the past that US Open winners don’t need to rank among the best scramblers.
Conners actually profiles very similarly to how Gary Woodland did in 2019 who ranked 19 on the tour in driving performance, 20th in approach play and 107th in scrambling.Woodland of course went on to win the event at odds of 60/1. Could history repeat itself here?
US Open Favourite – Scottie Scheffler
Scottie Scheffler is the favourite for this year’s US Open at odds of 7/1 in the enhanced win only market here at BoyleSports. You can also pick how many each-way places you want with odds ranging from 13/2 with 6 places to 5/1 with 12 places.
If ever a player fits the profile of a US Open champion it is Scottie Scheffler. The Texan is the form player in the world of golf right now as evidenced by his number one spot in the world rankings.
Scheffler ranks 1st in strokes gained off-the-tee, 1st in strokes gained approach and 6th in strokes gained around the green. It’s safe to say with those ranks that the American is deserving of his favourite tag for this year’s US Open.
However, there are a couple things that would worry me about Scheffler that would give me pause before putting a bet on him. The 2022 Masters Champion has been terrible with the putter this season and his issues appear to have gotten even worse with the flat stick over the past couple of months. It’s hard to win a major championship when you are struggling on the greens.
Another concern that I have about backing Scheffler is the poor track record of US Open favourites. As mentioned in a recent post, where we took a look at the pre-tournament odds of US Open winners, only one US Open favourite not named Tiger Woods has gone on to win the tournament since 2000. The sole player to do that was Jon Rahm in 2021.
For a full preview on Scheffler’s chances in this tournament check out our Scottie Scheffler 2023 US Open odds post.
US Open Course 2023 – LA Country Club
This is the first time that Los Angeles Country Club will host a major championship. We have also never seen a PGA Tour event played on this course so there is no course form to go off of for any of the players ahead of this year’s US Open.
The club is known for being super private and one of the most valuable pieces of land in the world due to the area and size it takes up in Los Angeles.
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